Exclusive interview with Don Goodman, Part 2: EFL promotion predictions, why Stoke couldn’t have a better man in charge, and Sunderland need to dream and play without fear

Speaking in part 2 of an exclusive interview with NewBettingOffers.co.uk, Sky Sports EFL expert and ex-West Brom and Wolves striker Don Goodman gave his EFL promotion predictions, explained why Stoke City couldn’t have a better manager than Mark Robins despite the club’s recent struggles and has told his former club Sunderland to ‘dream’ and ‘play without fear’ as the Black Cats push for Europe.

Q: Is Mark Robins still the right man to lead Stoke City forward?

DG - “I don’t think Mark Robins is under pressure because I think the hierarchy see what we’ve all seen. It’s been a really tough season, especially since early November, when injuries started mounting up one after the other, and the squad just wasn’t deep enough to cope with it.

“They had to play a young goalkeeper for most of the season, deputising for one of the best goalkeepers in the division, Viktor Johansson. Then Gavin Bazunu comes in and gets injured after, what, two games, maybe a game and a half. That really sums up and epitomises how things have gone for Stoke City.

“For long spells, they had no forwards because they were all injured. At other times, they had no defenders because they were all injured. It’s just been horrific, really. Mark Robins said it’s the worst he’s ever known in his career. When you consider the length of his managerial career, that’s quite a statement.

“So for me, they’ll need to build again in the summer. They’ll need to make the squad a little bit deeper. But I don’t think they could have a better man in charge than Mark Robins right now. I think he will progress the football club.

They’ve got some really talented players there, but when some of the first eleven get injured, the players coming in just aren’t quite up to the same level. That’s something I’m sure they’ll look to address.

“In the past, they’ve had a lot of players come in with good reputations who just haven’t performed. But it seems to me that Mark Robins is building something a bit different. The squad looks younger than it has in previous years. Before, there were quite a lot of experienced players, but now there are more players who are younger or just coming into their prime.

“They just need a little bit more depth and a little bit more quality, and I’m sure they’ll do better next season.”

Q: Who do you think will finish higher in the Championship next year, Swansea or Cardiff?

DG - “I think both Swansea City and Cardiff City will go into the Championship next season with optimism.

What will be the goal? I don’t ever believe the goal of a newly promoted club should be to get promoted again. So in Cardiff’s case, they are a very young, talented group, playing beautiful football which is really easy on the eye, with a brilliant young manager. They are going to have to add a little bit of experience to that group, for me. I think anything in and around the middle of the table would be brilliant for Cardiff.

“Swansea, I thought, for the first time in quite a few seasons, showed a bit of ambition in the transfer market with the amount of money that they spent last summer. They do have the makings of a decent team, a decent squad. I just think they have tended to struggle against teams in the top half.

“They have had plenty of wins against those in and around them and those strugglers, but against teams in the top half, they are going to have to find a way of being more competitive.

“You cannot really answer who will finish higher until the transfer window shuts at the end of August and we know what both squads look like. By that point, they will have played six or eight games and we will have a better idea.

“But I do think that Swansea, after a difficult first half of the season, now look a lot better. You have got to shoot for the stars, have you not? They have got some high-profile investors. As I said, they were more ambitious this time than they have been for years in the transfer window.

“Let’s see how ambitious they are in the summer window, and then we will be able to assess it more. I like Vitor Matos, by the way. I think he’s done a decent job so far.”

Q: What does Leicester City's failure to beat Sheffield Wednesday say about them?

DG - “I don’t think it’s a result that defines Leicester City. They are not in the situation they are in because they drew 1–1 away at Sheffield Wednesday, for me. It is obviously what has gone before. It has been a shambolic season where the majority of the squad have massively underperformed as individuals and got nowhere near the levels they are capable of. It is almost shameful.

“It is not very often that I dig groups of players out. I did it with Southampton earlier this season because they are such a talented group. They have proved what a talented group they are, whereas Leicester have not.

“People say they have not spent that much money, but look at the players on paper that they have got and how they performed when they last played in the Championship individually. Some players have let themselves down. I am not going to name them because I think they know, and everybody will know who we are talking about, but player for player, it is shameful that they find themselves in this situation.

“They could say, ‘Well, we have had the six points deducted,’ but they have not played well all season, even when they were picking up results. I remember going back to very early in the season, the third game of the season, when they went away to The Valley and beat Charlton Athletic 1–0. They got battered, and Abdul Fatawu pulled out a world-class goal to win it. I think that left them in the top six.

“You looked at it and thought they were not playing at a level that merited being that high. They were scraping by. I think that is what they have done all season, but it has levelled off and they have stopped getting the lucky wins.

“When you go back to the Sheffield Wednesday game, they had 24 shots, 12 on target, and ran into a one-man barrier in Pierce Charles in goal. I would be surprised if that is not the most shots, and certainly shots on target, they have had all season. So it’s not like they played terribly in that game.

“So it brings us on to whether they can get out of it. That is the next question. What I will say about this group is that the moment of truth is upon them. They could go down as a group that Leicester City fans resent for a long time for doing this to their football club and taking them down.

“There are issues with ownership and financial rules, of course, but as a group of players, they should not be anywhere near a relegation battle.”

Q: What impact does the Pompey vs Oxford draw have on both teams?

“It's not a great result for either team. To be honest, both would have viewed it as a very winnable game. But I do think that given Portsmouth played with 10 men from the 17th minute onwards, it's a better point for them. You could see the frustration on Matt Bloomfield's face afterwards with his team having played so long against 10 men.

The fact that they had gone ahead quite late in the game and not been able to see out the last sort of 10 minutes playing against 10 men definitely makes it feel like two points dropped for Oxford United and, possibly, a point gained for Portsmouth. But a point for each team, it's not ideal, not ideal for either club.”

Q: Is John Mousinho getting the most out of his resources at Pompey?

DG - “I do not think John Mousinho should be criticised in the slightest. He has been working with a very low end Championship budget. I looked at the spending and there has been no real outlay on transfers, so it has been a tough season. I feel for him.

“The biggest problem Portsmouth have had is the lack of goals. Colby Bishop has two goals, one of them a penalty. His only open play goal came away at West Bromwich Albion in a 1–1 draw in the third game of the season. Who set that up? Josh Murphy. For me, Murphy’s absence is the single biggest reason Portsmouth are where they are.

“He started 12 games, and in those 12 games he had six assists. He is still top of their assist list despite only starting 12 matches. I watched one of those games against Wrexham and the quality of cross he was putting into dangerous areas, one after the other, was unbelievable. It was a striker’s dream.

“I know Colby Bishop has had chances and missed chances, but I think he would have many more goals if Josh Murphy had stayed fit. So it has been tough for John Mousinho, losing probably your best player and struggling for goals. I do feel for him. When you look at the rest of the league, they are probably in and around where you would expect them to be.

“It brings me on to a slightly different point. That is the difference between Middlesbrough and Coventry, and why Middlesbrough have struggled to break low blocks down. What do Coventry do? Tatsuhiro Sakamoto puts crosses in, Ephron Mason-Clark puts crosses in, and Milan van Ewijk puts crosses in. Jay Dasilva, too. They just get crosses into the box.

“That is how you break a low block down. You flood the box with midfield runners and strikers, and the opposite wide player attacks the far post to get on the end of crosses. That is the difference between Coventry and Middlesbrough. It stands out like a sore thumb.”

Q: Where do we sit now in the relegation battle?

DG - “Let’s break it down. Obviously, it is two from five teams going down alongside Sheffield Wednesday.

“Blackburn are clearly in the best position of the five teams. They have eight points from the last four games, including away wins at Millwall and Birmingham, Those wins have put them right in the driving seat. One more win takes Blackburn to 50 points, and I think that will be enough. I would expect them to get that.

“Working down from there, I look at West Bromwich Albion. They are unbeaten in six, and what I am seeing now that I was not seeing earlier in the season is fight and character. For me, two wins should do it for them. They have still got Millwall and Ipswich to play, but they also face Sheffield Wednesday on the last day. You would expect them to win that, so can they find another victory as well? I think so.

“That then leaves two from Portsmouth, Oxford United and Leicester City. Portsmouth have Middlesbrough away and Ipswich at home in their next two games. Earlier in the season, you would say anything from those fixtures is a bonus, but now they have to get something. It is hard to see how, given their struggles for goals. I know they scored two at the weekend, but Middlesbrough and Ipswich will likely dominate those games, so everything will have to go their way.

“After that, they have what is effectively a cup final against Leicester before playing Coventry. Having to face the top three in their final six games really worries me when it comes to Portsmouth.

“So overall, it feels like a toss of a coin between Oxford and Leicester. Oxford still have to play Millwall and Sheffield Wednesday, with that Wednesday game at home, which is interesting.

“Having said all that, you could flip a coin between those two. I did see signs of life from Leicester, even though they only drew with Sheffield Wednesday. They have the best players of those clubs fighting relegation and that is ultimately my logic. If they produce even three-quarters of what they are capable of, I think they will pick up enough points, and probably more than the other two.

“For Oxford, even being in this position with a realistic chance of survival is remarkable. Matt Bloomfield has done an incredible job. But when I compare the squads, I see a far stronger group at Leicester, even if they have had attitude issues in the dressing room.

“I just feel they will find a way to dig themselves out of it, especially with Gary Rowett in charge. I could be completely wrong, as I said, it really is a coin toss. It will be fascinating for the neutral, but not for anyone involved with those clubs.”

Q: Tom Atcheson has been linked with a move to Sunderland, Manchester United, Dortmund, Newcastle, Everton and all sorts — is he the most exciting young defender in the EFL right now? What move do you think would suit him best?

DG - “Tom Atcheson has only started six Championship games in his whole career, so we cannot honestly be saying he is one of the best defensive prospects in the EFL when we have seen so many others.

"Whatever happens with transfer speculation, and I am sure bigger clubs will be monitoring him, what he needs right now is regular football. If he went to any of the big Premier League clubs, he would not get that. Whereas if he stayed at Blackburn, he would have a brilliant chance of consistent first-team football.

“We have seen in recent seasons young centre-backs being heavily praised and talked up as future stars. Ronnie Edwards came through at Peterborough United and Charlie Hughes at Wigan Athletic are good examples. They are now 23 and 22 respectively, and we are still waiting to see them properly step up to the top level. They’re great examples of how easy it is to get carried away. They are two talented lads who still have time, so hopefully one or both of them can fulfil that potential.

“Young defenders are rare. You tend to see more young midfielders, forwards and wide players breaking through. As a defender, it is tougher because you are inexperienced, sometimes naive, and often not fully physically developed.

“When you look at someone like Dean Huijsen, who broke through at Bournemouth last season and is now excelling at Real Madrid, that is the exception rather than the rule.

“As for Tom Atcheson, I will keep an eye on him as I have not seen too much of him yet. But I would urge people not to put too much pressure on his young shoulders.”

Q: Who are you backing to secure the final play-off spot in League One? Plymouth? Reading? Stevenage?

DG - “For me, the last play-off spot in League One is between one team from five, really, because the rest are out of it.

“Stevenage have the toughest run-in. They have three away games, including trips to third-placed Bradford City and fourth-placed Bolton Wanderers. They have won one of their last ten away games and lost seven. It’s a brilliant story, a club of that size with their budget being in this position with five games to go is incredible. It is technically in their hands, but I just feel that run of fixtures might catch up with them at this stage of the season.

“I then look at Plymouth Argyle. They play three out of the bottom four, plus AFC Wimbledon, and also have Bradford away. I can see Plymouth picking up plenty of points from that run, so they are one I would seriously consider.

“Reading have played a game more, so they only have four left. I can see them possibly winning three of those, but the other is against Cardiff, which is a tough match. Huddersfield’s form is a bit patchy. They won away at Leyton Orient on Monday, but that was their first win in five games. They still have some difficult fixtures left, so I am not fully convinced by them.

“Of the teams further back, Luton Town are the interesting one, because they have good fixtures on paper. They play two of the bottom three.

“So, if you are putting me on the spot, I would narrow it down to Plymouth or Luton at this stage. As with all predictions, I have to caveat that by saying it can make you look very silly. But right now, based on the fixtures and current form, I would fancy either Plymouth or Luton to nick that sixth spot.”

Q: How about the final relegation spot in League One? Can Blackpool avoid the drop?

DG - “I mean, you have got to assume that the bottom three are doomed now, so it is one from three for the last relegation spot in League One and those three are Exeter City, Blackpool and Burton Albion.”

“I think if Blackpool win one of their games, and Burton do as well, that would mean Exeter would need to win two. When you look at Exeter’s fixtures, they are away at Plymouth, away at Stockport, away at Burton, which could be like a cup final if Burton are still in the battle, and then at home to Bradford.

“For me, Exeter are really up against it. One win each for Blackpool and Burton would probably seal the deal, and I can see both of them getting that.

“So unfortunately, given I played for Exeter right at the very end of my career, I can see them being the ones to fall through the trap door.”

Q: Do you think MK Dons are certainties for promotion from League Two?

DG - “MK Dons are in a fight, and I did not see that coming. I really fancied them to be good enough to get the job done. Now they are in a scrap, and not just with one or two teams, but with five.

“I think we have to say well done to Bromley. Being top is an unbelievable achievement and a great story. MK Dons play Bromley next, which is second versus first, and just below them third play fourth with Cambridge United at home to Notts County. So that is the next round of fixtures, and we will probably know more after that.

“Swindon Town and Salford City will know that at least a couple of those teams above them I have mentioned are going to drop points. Swindon are away at Colchester on Friday, and then have Gillingham at home. Salford also have games against teams who have been a little bit out of sorts. Colchester and Gillingham both won their last games against struggling sides, but overall they have not been in great form.

“MK Dons, though, have no wins in four at just the wrong time, and that has brought the pressure on. The game they have after Bromley is Crewe away, and Crewe are in the hunt for a play-off spot, too.

“I think it would be a massive underachievement if MK Dons do not get promoted this season. If they do not finish in the top three, they have the backup of the play-offs, but they will not go into that with confidence. They will feel flat if they miss out on automatic promotion.”

Q: What chance do you give Oldham Athletic of securing a play-off spot after a brilliant run of form under Micky Mellon?

DG - “Oldham Athletic have come from nowhere. To be honest, you cannot predict anything in League Two. I think that is what we have learned over the course of this season. It is even more unpredictable than the Championship. It is all to play for. You look at the top, the play-off places and the bottom, and it is just a chaotic league.

“Oldham have been excellent, and Micky Mellon has done a terrific job. I looked at the fixtures they have left. Four of them are very winnable, as they are playing four of the bottom nine. The other game is at home against Salford. “They have won five and drawn one of their last six home games, and that form alone tells you they are right in the mix.

“The problem for them is that they are in a battle with four or five other teams who are also in good form. So I would not go as far as saying they will do it, but they are definitely in with a chance.”

Q: How big is it to see Leeds United finally in the FA Cup semi-finals again? Can they go all the way?

DG - “I scored for Wolves to stop Leeds United from getting to the FA Cup semi-finals in 1998. I do not know whether they have been in the quarter-finals since then, but if they haven’t, I was the one who stopped them the last time!

“It is great for Leeds, especially the fans, to reach an FA Cup semi-final. It is an incredible occasion and a brilliant day out at Wembley.

“They are playing Chelsea, and I think Chelsea are vulnerable at the moment. Leeds have already beaten them 3–1 at Elland Road, and they came from 2–0 down at Stamford Bridge to draw 2–2. So they will go into it without fear. There is definitely an opportunity for Leeds to reach the final.

“If Manchester City are massive favorites to win the FA Cup given the form they are in. But for Leeds, it is one step at a time. Can they win the semi-final? I do not see any reason why not.”

Q: Does Sunderland’s huge derby win mean they can finish the season strongly?

DG - “It was an amazing win in the derby. It is very tight in the area of the table they are in. They are in 11th place, and when you look at it closely, there are only four points between seventh-placed Brentford and 13th-placed Bournemouth.

“Seventh, and maybe even eighth, could be enough for a European spot, depending on what happens in the cup competitions. There are seven games to go, three of those are against teams near the bottom (Spurs, Wolves & Forest), with two of them at home, so a genuine opportunity to add to the points tally.

“I will be there at the weekend for Roberto De Zerbi’s return to the Premier League, which will be fascinating. .

“Why can they not dream? They have to. They should go for it, play without fear and see where it takes them.

“Wherever they finish, it has been an unbelievable season. I do not think anyone expected Sunderland to deliver what they have this season after winning the play-off final last year. It has been absolutely magnificent.”

Exclusive interview with Don Goodman, Part 1: Championship predictions, Ipswich Town’s top two prospects, Chris Davies’ Birmingham City future, Wrexham will fall short of play-offs..