Exclusive interview with Don Goodman, Part 1: Championship predictions, Ipswich Town’s top two prospects, Chris Davies’ Birmingham City future, Wrexham will fall short of play-offs...

Speaking in an exclusive interview with NewBettingOffers.co.uk, Sky Sports EFL expert and former West Brom, Wolves and Sunderland striker Don Goodman gave his Championship promotion predictions, explained why he’s still not convinced that Ipswich Town will finish in the Championship’s top two and suggested that the next five games will determine Chris Davies’ future at Birmingham City.

Q: If Coventry City secure promotion to the Premier League, how do you think they would fare next season? Can Frank Lampard’s experience in the top-flight help them?

DG - “Well, he’s pretty much ticked every box, Frank, really. As a player, he’s played hundreds and hundreds of Premier League games. And as a manager, he’s managed at the top with Chelsea and he’s managed at the bottom with Everton. So he knows the Premier League like the back of his hand. That has to be a positive for Coventry City. It really does.

“We all know about the gulf that exists between the Premier League and the Championship, so as a massive fan of Championship football, it has been thrilling to see that Sunderland have been so amazing. Although Leeds United are still in a scrap, they probably deserve to be slightly higher than where they are. I think they’ve played better and deserve more points than they’ve actually got. And even Burnley, I know they’re losing on a pretty regular basis, but not many teams are rolling them over. They really are having a go, and that’s very different to the previous six promoted teams that we saw.

“So what that shows is that the gap is surmountable, but it is, as I’ve said all the time, at whatever level, whatever goal that you’ve got, you will achieve it or fail because of your recruitment. And it won’t be any different for Coventry.

“Unfortunately, Frank, with all his experience, will know that there is a large swathe of that squad that, with respect to them, aren’t going to be good enough to play week in, week out in the Premier League and help Coventry City survive. It’s a brutal assessment, as they haven’t even got up yet, so when they do (and they will) they should really celebrate it!

“So to reiterate the initial point, Frank knows the Premier League probably as well as anybody. That’s bound to be a useful thing.”

Q: What will it take for the promoted teams to ‘do a Sunderland’ next season? Does it all come down to spending £200m or so or is there more to it than that?

DG - “Well, Leeds United signed players like Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Sean Longstaff, and James Justin, with Premier League experience. And then you’ve got to find a few hidden gems as well. You’ve got to have a mix. You’ve got to have a little bit of everything.

“Sunderland’s success is largely built on the vast Premier League experience Granit Xhaka brings and for me, he has to be on the shortlist for player of the year.

Neither club spent massive amounts on one individual player, but what they did was trust their recruitment policy and their recruitment team. Suddenly, someone like Robin Roefs has been one of the best keepers in the Premier League when not many had even heard of him.

“Up front, they’ve got players who are an absolute handful, along with others who bring energy and quality, plus experience at the highest level, even in the Champions League last season in Reinildo.

“I know we’re reflecting back and these signings were not guaranteed to succeed, but what Leeds and Sunderland have done is have more of their new players make a real positive influence rather than struggle, as we’ve seen in previous years. The recruitment team at both clubs deserve huge credit”

Q: Are you now more confident than ever that Ipswich Town will win promotion to the Premier League?

DG - “What I would say is that any of the other teams in the promotion race would swap places with Ipswich Town. Obviously, aside from Coventry. I’m talking about the others that are in the race for second place now. Clearly any of them would swap places with Ipswich now to be level on points with two games in hand. But I wouldn’t say I’m confident, given the way the season has gone.

“They are the favorites, there’s no doubt. But this season, more than most, has had a massive amount of inconsistency and there have been times this season where they haven’t really ever convinced me. Even that victory over Birmingham City on Monday wasn’t convincing. There was an element of good fortune about it, in terms of Birmingham’s goal that was ruled out.

“Listen, if you’re an Ipswich fan, you can point to a penalty they should have had in the last minute v Leicester (3pts instead of 1) and a penalty that was given to Stoke City that should never have been given. So I’m not pointing at the disallowed goal on Monday as being lucky in any way, because they’ve been unlucky just as much.

“When I look at it, I know they’re on an eight-game unbeaten run, but the Birmingham performance doesn’t look like a team that are going to blow others away over these last seven games they’ve got to play. Then you look at who they’ve got to face. Norwich City away, Southampton away, Middlesbrough at home.

“The other thing is that five of their seven games are away from home. So I don’t think we can say with any certainty that they will be promoted. I think we can say they’re the favorites, and I think we can say that all the others would swap places with them. But I don’t think we can say they are certainties at this point.

“It’s a huge week for them. Norwich away in the East Anglia derby, followed by Portsmouth away, who are fighting for their lives on Tuesday, followed by Middlesbrough at home, which I’m going to have the pleasure of being at, and I can’t wait for that game.

“It’s a massive week for Ipswich, if they come through this week with a healthy amount of points, then you would really have to fancy them. But at this moment, there’s still work to be done, I’d say.”

Q: Is it going to be another year where Middlesbrough fall short at this rate? What can they do to rediscover their previous momentum?

DG - “Well, it’s too late to really change the way Middlesbrough play. They play the way they play and there is no real plan B. The way they play is good enough, too.

“They are the team that frustrates me more than any other because, honestly, up to the final third, they’re the best team in the league, and I won’t have anybody tell me any different. The football they play to get into those positions is absolutely brilliant. They have the most possession, they have the most touches in the opposition box, and yet, according to Opta, they’ve created only the 11th most ‘big chances’.

“It’s about decision-making and execution in that final third, and that’s where they’ve really fallen down. They’ve struggled to break down the low blocks they’ve faced recently. You can be sure that teams coming to the Riverside next will be aware of that. They will play a low block and try to hit them on the counter.

“They’ve now gone five games without a win, drawing three and losing two. In those five games, they’ve had 126 shots, which is averaging over 25 shots a game, they’ve created 16 big chances, with an expected goals figure of 12.91, so more or less 13, and they’ve scored four goals.

“That, in a nutshell, tells you everything you need to know about where the problems lie. For me, it’s simple. If they were more ruthless in that final third, they’d be up there with Coventry City, and we wouldn’t even be having a conversation about who could catch them. But they haven’t been.

“They’re looking for a moment now, because when you go through a run like that, it becomes psychological. Every time they get a great chance to score, they seem to be snatching at it, rushing it, or making the wrong choice. They’re on a five-game winless run, and for a team as good as that at this stage of the season, it’s frustrating.

“But I hate it when people who have probably never played professional football talk about ‘bottling it’. It’s such a disrespectful phrase. They’re not bottling it. They’re still playing really well, they’re just missing chances.

“They obviously need to beat Portsmouth first, and then when they face Ipswich Town, they have to win to have any chance. If they don’t, then the top two is gone, and the play-offs become a lottery.”

Q: How do you view the play-off picture after Southampton vs Wrexham?

DG - “Look, Southampton are flying, and I had a look at the fixtures. I would expect them, if they carry on at this level, to win at least four out of the six remaining games. That will take them to 78 points, and I think that will probably get them into fifth, maybe even fourth.

“The win over Wrexham was big for Southampton. Could they, on the back of that amazing FA Cup win, reproduce that just a few days later? Well, Tonda Eckert changed six players, and that shows the power of the squad they’ve got. That’s why, even though they’ve got this hectic fixture list to finish the season, I don’t really worry for them in terms of getting into the play-offs. If and when they do get into the play-offs, they’re going to be the favorites to win them. That’s a worry for the rest, but they were exceptional against Wrexham.

“I’m assuming that Southampton are going to get in. I’m assuming that the others are going to add points to what they’ve already got, and therefore that leaves one spot, and it’s one from three.

“I’ve already said a few times that, even though I think Derby County have done fantastically this season, there’s just something telling me that they’re going to come up just short. The Achilles injury to Patrick Agyemang is like a dagger to the heart, really. He’s been brilliant, so to try and do it without one of their most influential players is a huge blow.

“That leaves me with Wrexham or Hull City. It all boils down to the fact that Wrexham have got very tough fixtures, and Hull have got a four-point cushion. At this stage, that feels big to me. A four-point cushion with five games to go, so you would have to say it’s Hull’s to lose.

“But this is the Championship, and only two or three weeks ago I was saying that I was a little bit worried Hull could be the ones to fall out because they were having a slightly inconsistent period. They were very competitive against Coventry on Monday night, especially without the ball. I haven’t really seen that side to them before because they’ve been quite open and have conceded too many goals.

“They’ve been involved in some brilliant games, which is why I was surprised that one finished 0-0. But they were excellent out of possession and really nullified Coventry. If they can reproduce that level and just add a little bit more in the final third, then they’re in the box seat.”

Q: What chance do you give Hull City of promotion to the Premier League now as you were unsure about their credentials previously?

DG - “Well, Hull City are away at Sheffield United in their next game, and it’s another big one. They really were up for that Coventry game. You could see it in the body language and the attitude.

“I think if they come through the Sheffield United game, then I’m looking at it and thinking that three wins will definitely guarantee Hull City a top six finish. If they win that game, I think that would put them on 71 points, so they might only need one more win. I’d really fancy them if they can beat Sheffield United.

“That said, Sheffield United are a little bit wounded, because Chris Wilder will not let their standards drop. You could see his fury, even though they’ve got no chance of getting into the play-offs, after that 3-3 draw against Swansea. You could see how angry he was in his post-match interview about the fact that they’ve dropped so many points after scoring first. It’s a ridiculous number, something like 30 points.

“But they are still a very decent team at this level, so this is a real test for Hull. If they can win there, then you would really have to fancy them of making the play-offs.”

Q: Derby County are still amongst the play-off scrap - just how good of a job has John Eustace done there?

DG - “Whatever happens from here, Derby County are another club who have just had the most magnificent season. Millwall are another one. The likes of Millwall, Hull, Derby, regardless of what happens from here to the end of the season, they've had unbelievably good seasons. John Eustace deserves massive, massive credit.

“With five games to go, they're still very much in it and they play Southampton away next, which is going to be a cup final for them. I've tentatively written them off, but if they can go to Southampton and win, they're right back in it. They also have Norwich City away, so they've got some tough fixtures. But if they do get in the top six, they will very much deserve to be there.”

Q: Will Norwich City be one of the favourites for promotion moving into next season given their form under Phillipe Clement?

DG - “Norwich City have taken 49 points in 26 games under Phillipe Clement. Over the course of a season, that equates to 87 points. That would have possibly been enough for a top-two finish this season. We’ll see if it is, but Phillipe Clement has just done the most incredible job.

“You’ve got to remember where they were when he took over. They were on the floor, literally, in the relegation zone. We were all scratching our heads at how they could be so bad with what is actually a reasonably decent group of players. They just kept losing every time they played at home. It was loss after loss. You were thinking, how is this happening?

“But he’s gone in and had a real impact. They’ve already got a bit of depth to that squad, and I suspect they will be adding even more quality in the summer. So you would have to fancy them, to be honest. They will definitely be one of my favorites for promotion next season.

“They’re still going to have an impact on promotion this season, too, because they’ve still got to play Ipswich Town, Hull City and Derby County. So they will be key to how it all plays out, even if it’s not going to end in promotion for them this season.

“Ipswich are in the box seat as things stand, there’s no doubt, but Norwich City away is as hard as it gets at this moment in time, along with Southampton away and Coventry away. I’m looking forward to watching it, to be honest. It’s going to be a great East Anglian derby.”

Q: We talked about how Chris Davies needs a strong end of the season at Birmingham City but he doesn’t appear to be getting that - what position does this leave him in?

DG - “You know, Birmingham City are one of the most confusing teams in the Championship, which is a league of teams that really confuse you anyway. There are plenty of them, but I think Blues are right up there in that regard for me.

“There have been games and runs where you watch them and think they are a really good team. I remember in November, they had three home games where they put four past Portsmouth, four past Millwall, and four past Norwich in consecutive matches. But then they had a really poor December.

“They addressed that by bringing in a lot of quality in the transfer window in January, and off they went again. They had an eight-game unbeaten run, but it has just petered out. Now they have only won one of their last eight and lost six, and that has cost them their chances.

“I’m looking at their record against teams in the top half, and it tells you they’re not quite competitive where they need to be. They’ve played 21 games, but have only won six of those and lost 11. So they’ve lost more than half the games they’ve played against teams in the top half.

“Away from home against top-half teams, they’ve played 11, won one, and taken just four points from those matches. So they’ve really struggled to compete against the better sides.

“Chris Davies is not daft. He knows how ambitious the football club is. The club wants to get to the Premier League as soon as possible, so these last five games might not be huge for Birmingham City as a club, but I do think they are big for Chris.

“They will probably determine whether or not he stays at the football club. They need a big finish, and I, for one, hope they get it for him.”

Exclusive interview with Don Goodman, Part 2: EFL promotion predictions, why Stoke couldn’t have a better man in charge, and Sunderland need to dream and play without fear