Euro 2024 - Semi Finals Betting Preview
And then there were four. Of the 24 nations that began, only France, Spain, the Netherlands, and…England still remain. Hope springs eternal that this could finally be the Three Lions year. Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands outfit stand between Gareth Southgate and a date in Berlin on Sunday evening, whilst France take on Spain in the first of the semi-finals on Tuesday evening - two mouthwatering contests, which we can’t let pass by without a bet or two.
Spain vs France – Tuesday 8pm
Two huge footballing nations lock horns in the opening semi-final. However, quite how entertaining this turns out to be largely depends on the approach adopted by Didier Deschamps. On all known evidence, that approach is unlikely to be particularly positive.
France have made it this far despite scoring a grand total of one goal in open play across their opening five games. On the plus side, they have conceded only once over a tough run of games – Austria, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, and Portugal. Poland aside, that’s as difficult a run as faced by any side and reflects an impressive defensive performance.
Spain are the neutral's favourite, and rightly so, with La Roja adopting an attacking approach at odds with many sides in the competition – notably France and England. However, there is an argument that despite being easy on the eye, they have been no more effective than France.
Taking the one-sided matchups with Albania and Georgia out of the equation, Spain are averaging 1.81 xG for and 1.54 xG against. In four clashes with Austria, Netherlands, Belgium, and Portugal, France are averaging 1.37 xG for and 0.88 xG against. That gives Spain an edge of 0.44 in attack and France an advantage of 0.66 in defence. Concerningly for Spain, that defensive inequality could be greater here, with Robin Le Normand and Dani Carvajal suspended and high-energy midfielder Pedri injured.
Overall, we give the slight edge to France, which is at odds with the betting market, with Spain favourites across the board. France to win in 90 minutes is the first leg of our Bet Builder. That average of 1.54xG conceded versus Croatia, Italy, and Germany is also concerning, particularly given the defensive suspensions. Boost your odds by adding France to score over 1.5 goals.
Finally, referee Slavko Vincic is averaging 4.5 cards per game in the competition. In the likelihood that France will aim to disrupt Spain’s rhythm wherever possible, we suspect he will at least maintain that average.
Recommended Bet Builder:
- France to win in 90 minutes
- France to score over 1.5 goals
- Over 3.5 cards in the game
A £10 bet returns £70 with William Hill.
Netherlands vs England - Wednesday 8pm
If public opinion had any bearing on results, England may not have made it this far. Alas, style counts for little in the realm of football results, and despite failing to find much in the way of attacking fluidity, here England are in the semi-finals. There are reasons to head into this game with optimism. Firstly, that display against the Swiss was marginally the best yet, and secondly, England have been largely excellent at the back, conceding only three times across their five fixtures. That gives them a base to work from, but they really do need to find a way to supply an increasingly isolated Harry Kane. Cole Palmer and Anthony Gordon are options, but we don’t expect Southgate to name either in his starting line-up.
On the face of it, the Netherlands average xG of 1.51 compares favourably with the dismal 0.94 of England. However, those numbers are heavily influenced by games against poor Poland, high-pressing Austria, overmatched Romania, and gung-ho Turkey. Of the sides the Netherlands have faced, France are the most similar to England. Against Didier Deschamps' outfit, the Netherlands recorded an xG of just 0.58 and only 37.40% possession in a goalless draw.
This looks like England’s most difficult challenge to date – as you would expect of a semi-final – but we like their chances of making it through. To our eyes, the Netherlands' visual improvement has come when beating up on inferior sides. The fact that boring France dominated the ball against the Dutch should offer encouragement, as should the fact that, despite winning, the Netherlands allowed Turkey nine chances inside the area, with Virgil van Dijk far from at his best.
Following the logic that we favour England and expect the Three Lions to have most of the ball, we like the look of England to win in 90 minutes and the Netherlands to have the most cards. That’s a solid double at 9/2, but we will boost our bet by including Harry Kane to score. The England skipper has been derided by many so far (probably fairly so) but is still in with a shot of the Golden Boot and will take advantage should the Netherlands prove as generous in dishing out chances as in their last game.
Recommended Bet Builder:
- England to win in 90 minutes
- Netherlands to Receive the Most Cards
- Harry Kane to Score at Anytime
A £10 bet returns £90 with William Hill.
Top 20 Betting Offers
|
18+ New customers only. Place a £10+ bet at min odds 1/1 (2.0) within 14 days of sign-up. Get £30 in Free Bets, valid for 7 days on selected bets only. Free stake not returned with winnings. T&Cs apply. BeGambleAware.org |
|||||
|
New UK Customers sign up with code B20G20. Deposit and bet £20 or more at min odds of 1/2 (1.5). Receive a £20 free bet. Full Terms Apply. 18+ begambleaware |
|||||
|
New players. Choose bonus at signup. Wager bonus 10x. Any withdrawals void bonus. Valid 30 days. Deposit used 1st. Odds, bet & payment limits. T&Cs apply. 18+. |
|||||
|
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org. |
|||||
|
18+ New customers only. Opt in and bet up to £40 (min. £20) via mobile or app on any football (odds 1/1+) within 7 days of registration. Get up to £40 in free bets on selected markets, which expire in 7 days. T&Cs apply, see below. GambleAware.org | Please gamble responsibly |
|||||
|
New customers only. Applies to the 1st deposit using code WELCOME7. Min deposit £20. Min qualifying bet £20 at odds 1/1 (2.0). Cash‑out not permitted. Bonus Bets issued as 1×£7 BB (any sport excl. Virtuals), followed by 1×£7 BB (Horse Racing, SP/EW excluded) and 1×£7 BB (Football ACCA, min 4 selections, min odds 4.0). Bonus Bet stake not returned. Bonus Bets valid 5 days from credit. Max winnings £500 / £500 / £100 per Bonus Bet. One per customer. General T&Cs apply. BeGambleAware.org | 18+ |
|||||
|
New customers online only. Bet a min £/€10 at odds of 1/1 (2.0) or greater across sports or racing within 7 days of registration to qualify. Receive £/€20 Tote Credit, £/€10 Free Sports Bet within 48 hours of qualifying bet settlement. Qualifying bet is the first racing pool or sports bet added to bet slip. Voided/non-runner bets will not qualify; subsequent bet will be qualifying bet. 7-day expiry. 18+. One per customer. Selected customers only. Full T&Cs apply. Gambleaware.org. Full T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
T&Cs apply. 18+ New customers only. You must place a single win-only bet of £10 or more with odds of evens (2.00) or greater to qualify. Money back as £10 in free bets. Free bet is credited the day after the qualifying bet has settled. Must use code B10G10 when creating an account. |
|||||
|
18+, UK only. Deposit and place a £10 cash bet at single or accumulated odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater and we will give you £10 in free bets. Free bets credited as 4 x £5 Void or 'Draw No Bet' wagers do not qualify for this promotion. Available once per customer. Free bets will be credited at bet settlement and will expire 7 days after being credited. Full T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 6 x £5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned). Restrictions + T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
New customers only. Min £20 bet at odds 2.00+. Max reward: One £10 Free Bet and two £5 Combo Free Bets. £10 Free Bet min odds 1/1 (2.00). £5 Combo Free Bets min odds 2/1 (3.0). Free Bets expire 7 days after credit. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. |
|||||
|
*New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs + deposit exclusions apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org. 18+ |
|||||
|
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. virtuals) at 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accepted in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs + deposit exclusions apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org. 18+ |
|||||
|
18+ | GambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Opt in. Deposit & Stake £10 on slots to get 100 x £0.20 Free Spins on Sweet Bonanza with 10x wagering on free spins. Debit card or instant bank transfer only. Claim within 7 days. Spins expire within 48 hours. Geographical restrictions and T&Cs apply. #AD |
|||||
|
Place a £10 fixed odds Outright winner cash bet on a nation to win the World Cup. Once the bet is placed, receive 1 x free £10 fixed odds bet, 1 x free £10 football Total Goals spread bet and 1 x free £10 football Supremacy spread bet. Then receive a further free £10 fixed odds bet for every match your chosen nation wins during the World Cup, to a maximum of 7 wins. Offer expires at 9pm on Tues 23rd June 2026. 18+ www.gambleaware.org. |
|||||
|
18+| GambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Opt in. Deposit and Bet £10+ on sports at min odds of 2.0+ (1/1) for £30 in Free Bets within 7 days. Debit cards or instant bank transfers only. Free bets expire within 7 days of issue. Geographical restrictions and T&C’s apply.#AD |
|||||
|
New sportsbook customers only. Place £10 first bet at min odds 1/2 to get £20 Free Bet. Stake not returned. Free Bet valid 7 days, min odds 1/2. Settled bets only. One welcome offer per customer (not with 50% Net Loss Refund). 18+. Full T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
#AD | Welcome bonus for new players only | Maximum bonus is 100% up to £100 | Min. deposit is £10 | No max cash out | Wagering is 40x bonus | Maximum bet with an active bonus is £5 | Eligibility is restricted for suspected abuse | Skrill & Neteller deposits excluded for welcome bonus | Cashback when offered, applies to deposits where no bonus is included | Cashback is cash with no restrictions | T&C's apply |Free bet: Min odds: 2.0 - Free bet value will be deducted from free bet winnings | 18+ | BeGambleAware.org | Gambling is addictive, please gamble responsibly! |
|||||
|
New customers only. Min £20 bet at odds 2.00+. Max reward: One £10 Free Bet and two £5 Combo Free Bets. £10 Free Bet min odds 1/1 (2.00). £5 Combo Free Bets min odds 2/1 (3.0). Free Bets expire 7 days after credit. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. |
