Premier League Sack Race: First to Get the Boot in 2025/26
With the 2025/26 Premier League season now underway, not much has changed at the head of the outright winner market. Bolstered by a record-breaking splurge in the transfer window – headlined by the capture of Alexander Isak – Liverpool remain favourites, followed by 2024/25 runners-up Arsenal.
Other long-term markets, however, have already witnessed a significant shake-up. None more so than the “Next Manager to Leave His Post” market – commonly known as the sack race. When the season began, Keith Andrews, Daniel Farke, Scott Parker, Regis Le Bris, and Graham Potter were deemed the men most likely to be the first to leave.
One month into the campaign, a manager not even in the top five has received his marching orders. If Nuno Espirito Santo can go, following such a successful 2024/25 campaign, the question is who could be next?
With the first international break now behind us, who do the betting markets suggest should be most nervous about their position? All prices are quoted from Betway.
Ruben Amorim – 9/4
With a reinvented £207.2 million front line and a full pre-season to work with his troops, this is supposed to be the season that Ruben Amorim finally gets Manchester United heading back in the right direction. He might yet come good, but a home defeat to Arsenal, a draw at Fulham, a last-gasp victory over Burnley, and Carabao Cup humiliation at Grimsby is not the start that many hoped for. Quotes such as “Sometimes I hate my players” and “Sometimes I want to quit” see the Portuguese boss sitting second in the market.
Graham Potter – 9/4
A double-figure price when the season began, back-to-back Premier League defeats by a combined scoreline of 8-1 and a Carabao Cup loss at Wolves saw the West Ham boss propelled to joint-favouritism. However, it only takes one result to change the mood, and Potter’s odds have eased following that surprise 3-0 win at the City Ground, which may well have hastened Nuno’s departure. Less active in the transfer market than fans would have hoped, it remains to be seen whether that success represents a turning point for the Hammers.
Vitor Pereira – 5/1
Vitor Pereira did a phenomenal job in steering Wolves clear of relegation trouble in 2024/25. His immediate reward for that was to see star players Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait Nouri sold to Manchester United and Manchester City, respectively. Those losses led many to predict a long, hard season. Three games in, and Wolves are the only side yet to pick up a point, following defeats at the hands of Manchester City, Bournemouth, and Everton. With discontent building in the stands, Pereira may discover how quickly things can change in the life of a Premier League manager.
Daniel Farke – 8/1
Following a solid 1-0 win over Everton in their opener, Daniel Farke moved down the list of managers most likely to be sacked. Three games later, he is back in the top five. A 5-0 hammering at Arsenal is easily forgiven, while a goalless home draw with Newcastle is no disgrace. The only real disappointment came in a penalty shootout defeat to a second-string Sheffield Wednesday in the Carabao Cup. An early lack of goals is a concern – only one in three Premier League fixtures – while the summer transfer window didn’t end as well as the club hoped. However, Farke’s Premier League record may be the biggest factor. Twice guiding Norwich City to promotion, he failed to keep the Canaries up in 2019/20 and was sacked following a desperate start to the 2021/22 season.
Oliver Glasner – 12/1
It is surprising to see the Crystal Palace boss featuring prominently in this market. Having masterminded the first major trophy in Eagles’ history and since added the Community Shield, a statue outside Selhurst Park is surely more likely than a sacking. Unbeaten in six in all competitions so far this season, Glasner’s position stems from reported friction with the board. With Marc Guehi’s transfer to Liverpool collapsing at the last minute, Glasner appears to have won the argument for now, but until underlying tensions are resolved, he seems likely to retain his position in the market.
Recommended Bet
Having been available at a double-figure price in pre-season, any value in Graham Potter looks to have disappeared, while Manchester United seem intent upon seeing the Ruben Amorim experiment for at least a little longer. Having invested so heavily, he will surely be given time.
Oliver Glasner surely won't be sacked and may have been placated by the club blocking Marc Guehi’s transfer to Liverpool on deadline day. Overall, we would be surprised to see Farke see the season out at Elland Road, but he may be beaten to the exit door by Vitor Pereira. 5/1 is a solid price for a man in charge of the only side that failed to pick up a point in their first three games and lost two of their best players in the transfer window. With Wolves struggling, Gary O’Neill was gone by Christmas in 2024/25, suggesting Pereira will need to turn things around quickly to avoid a similar fate.
The Premier League Sack Race
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