The Premier League Sack Race

Each Premier League season arrives with a wealth of long-term betting markets. Many of these focus on positive outcomes, such as Premier League Winner, Top Four Finish, or Top Scorer. However, other markets centre on more negative events. To Be Relegated and To Finish Bottom stand out among the team-based bets, while in the case of Premier League managers, there is one race that no one wants to win – The Sack Race.

Also referred to as First/Next Manager to Leave, this market focuses on which manager will be the next to leave their post, whether that be via a sacking, resignation, or a departure by mutual consent. Never shy of profiting from another’s misfortune, punters invest heavily in the sack race market throughout the season.

But what should we look for when identifying the manager most likely to receive his marching orders? Is it as simple as backing the boss who has presided over the worst sequence of results? Are certain clubs more drawn to a sacking than others? Here, we take a closer look at one of the few races in which finishing first is the worst outcome – at least for the managers involved.

How Swiftly Does the Axe Usually Fall?

In the introduction, we referred to The Sack Race as a long-term betting market. However, in this case, long-term often isn’t very long at all.

Across the 33 Premier League seasons between 1992-93 and 2024-25, 19 managers were relieved of their duties within the first 40 days of the campaign. The following six didn’t even make it to the 20-day mark:

• Paul Sturrock (Southampton 2004-05) - 9 days
• Peter Reid (Manchester City 1993-94) - 12 days
• Kenny Dalglish (Newcastle United 1998-99) - 12 days
• Bobby Robson (Newcastle United 2004-05) - 16 days
• Alan Curbishley (West Ham United 2008-09) - 18 days
• Kevin Keegan (Newcastle United 2008-09) - 19 days

While the departures of Alan Curbishley and Kevin Keegan were fuelled by transfer policy disputes, the other four casualties lost their jobs due to underwhelming results on the pitch. Premier League owners enter the season with set targets. If it appears that the team may fall short of those targets – even after only a few games – many owners relive the manager of their duties in double quick time.

Trigger Happy Owners

Next to results on the pitch, the key factor is the patience of the individuals who wield all the power. Some owners are happy to allow a manager time to impart their ideas and build a squad. Others appear to have their fingers permanently hovering over the ejector seat button.

In recent years, no man has provided a finer example of an owner with a short fuse than Gino Pozzo at Watford. Taking over the club in 2012, Pozzo had overseen 20+ managerial changes by May 2025 - including 12 during a rapid-fire 2020-2025 sacking spree.

Having assumed control of Chelsea in 2022, Todd Boehly has made a solid start in the sacking arena. By 2024, Thomas Tuchel, Graham Potter, and Mauricio Pochettino, and interim bosses Frank Lampard and Bruno Saltor, had all spun through the Stamford Bridge revolving doors.

Sunderland are another high turnover club to note. Since the 2021 takeover, the Black Cats have employed five new permanent managers and four caretaker managers.

Paying attention to the temperaments of those in charge can be worth its weight in gold in the sack race betting market. Latching onto Pozzo’s and Boehly’s propensity for a sacking has provided punters with a consistent stream of payouts over the past decade or so.

Sack Race Winners: Promoted Managers are Most Vulnerable

Todd Boehly has proven that big-spending top six clubs can burn through managers at an impressive rate. However, the men in the hot seat at newly promoted clubs are the most vulnerable.

It makes sense that this should be the case. Given the huge gulf in class between the Premier League and the Championship, the new boys are the most likely to experience poor results early in the season. That factor, in combination with the pressure to simply stay in the division, can see twitchy owners spring into action before the situation gets any worse.

Sack Race Winners: 2015-16 to 2024-25

Recent sack race trends highlight a couple of key points. Firstly, the vast majority of managers who leave their post do so having been sacked rather than handing in their resignation. If sacked, a manager will almost always receive a compensation payment from the club. Leaving the role of their own accord forfeits this payment. As such it is no surprise that managers usually hang on until the board takes action.

Secondly, the ten sackings in the above sample reinforce the theory that newly promoted managers are particularly at risk. Each season, three of the 20 Premier League clubs fall into the newly promoted category, representing 15%. However, 50% of the sack race winners were managers of newly promoted sides – over three times as many as we would expect if the sack race result were random.

Do Sackings Work?

As we can see, Premier League sackings occur regularly and appear to be increasing in frequency. With owners taking the option to change their manager so often, surely the strategy must work. Or does it?

Returning to the table containing the ten sack race winners between 2015-16 and 2024-25, let’s take a look at the position of each of the sides at the time of the sacking/resignation compared to where they ultimately ended up in the table.

The ten early-sackers in our sample improved their position by an average of 0.90 places. However, that stat is heavily influenced by the vast improvement of Crystal Palace in 2017-18.

Overall, four of the sides improved their position, four ended up worse off, and two remained exactly where they were. Of the seven sides in the relegation zone at the time of the change, three survived and four went down. Watford’s decision to sack Xisco Muñoz in 2021-22 produced the biggest downturn in fortunes. Safe at the time of his dismissal, the Hornets slumped to a nineteenth-place finish.

When One Race Ends Another Begins

While much of the discussion centres around the first manager to leave his post, the potential to profit from a sacking doesn’t end with the first dismissal. No sooner has the unfortunate boss received his P45 than the Next Manager to Leave Their Post market reopens.

Exactly how many managers will lose their job during a season is tough to predict. However, a look back at previous Premier League seasons shows an upward trend. In the first twenty years of its existence, the Premier League saw an average of around 4 managerial changes per season. In more recent seasons the average is closer to 8.

With managerial turnover showing no sign of slowing, the Sack Race will likely remain a popular option for Premier League punters seeking an interest outside of the traditional match result bets.

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