Expected Goals Stats and Football Betting

Recent seasons have witnessed an overload of new terminology infiltrate the beautiful game. From the high press to the low block, tactical analysis sounds a little different these days. Whether you believe these terms offer genuine insight or are simply pundits trying to sound clever, it seems that they are here to stay.

Amongst this litany of new lingo, one phrase which appears more than most is that of Expected Goals or xG for short. In the realm of statistical analysis, no football stat has made such an impact on analysts, coaches, and punters alike in the 21st Century. But what is it? How is it calculated? And how can it help with your betting decisions?

What Is Expected Goals?

As the name suggests, Expected Goals measures how many goals a team would expect to score in a given match. It does this by evaluating the quality of shooting opportunities created.

We have all witnessed games where one team misses a hatful of clear opportunities while the opposition scores with their only shot to emerge with a 1-0 win. Those only glancing at the result may assume that the 1-0 winners were the better of the two sides. However, the xG stats can present a truer reflection.

How is Expected Goals Calculated?

xG works by examining every shot in a game and assessing the likelihood that it would result in a goal. Every shot is assigned a value ranging from 0 (no chance of a goal) to 1 (a certain goal, e.g. a tap-in from the goal line). An xG of 0.20, for example, signifies that the shot would result in a goal two times out of 10.

When assigning an xG value, the specific characteristics of a shooting opportunity are compared with historical data of shots taken under similar conditions. By analysing how many shots under these conditions had previously resulted in a goal, we can assign a value to the shot under examination.

As with many things, a complicated computer program does all of the xG donkey work. Many elements are considered when crunching the numbers, including:

• Distance from Goal - The smaller the distance to the goal, the higher the xG
• Angle to Goal - The tighter the angle, the lower the xG – much easier to score from the centre of the box as opposed to wide of goal and tight against the touchline
• Body Part Used - If the distance and angle are the same, a shot taken with the foot is more likely to result in a goal than a header
• Preceding action - Historical data shows that shots following a through ball or dribble are more likely to result in a goal than those following a cross
• Proximity of nearest defender - Is the player under pressure when taking the shot? Will the defender have a chance to block it? The closer the nearest defender, the lower the xG

By assigning an xG value to every shot, we can calculate the xG total for the match.

For example, if a team has seven shots with respective xG values of 0.15, 0.20, 0.22, 0.26, 0.47, 0.55, and 0.76, their total xG for the game would equal 2.61. Whether they failed to score at all or netted five times, on average, this team could expect to score 2.61 goals in this game.

xG-Against and xG-Points

xG measures how well a team functions from an attacking standpoint and is also known as xG-For. But what about the defensive side of the game? Enter, xG-Against.

xG-Against assigns an xG-value to every shot taken by the opposing team. By assessing xG-against, we can determine how many goals a side would be expected to concede, given the quality of chances given up.

Finally, we come to xG-Points. A team may win the xG battle 3.12 to 0.67, but if they lose 1-0, they will come away with zero points. In contrast, the xG-points table assigns points according to the xG result rather than the actual result.

The xG League table can help identify sides lucky to be flying so high, and those performing better than their league position would imply.

What Betting Markets can xG Help With?

Whether you love or hate it, xG can be useful in your punting armoury. The statistic is certainly more informative than a measure such as Total Shots, which makes no differentiation between a sitter in the six-yard box and a 25-yard pot shot. In our experience, xG is particularly useful in the following areas.

Match Result

When picking out match betting options, it can be tempting to base your decision on the league positions of the sides or the most recent results. However, a look at the xG figures can present a clearer picture.

A good example of xG in action appeared on Match Day 31 in the 2024/25 Premier League season. Sitting in twelfth position, Crystal Palace were expected to have a tough game against eighth-placed Brighton at home. However, a look at the xG figures showed that Palace had averages of 1.77 xG-For and 1.49 xG-Against. The xG-For and Against numbers of Brighton were 1.68 and 1.51, giving Palace an edge on both sides of the ball. At this point in the season, Palace also had a higher Expected Points tally despite having played a game less. Throw in home advantage, and it became clear that, despite the league positions, the Eagles were the more likely to win the game, which they duly did.

Goals Markets

With a name like Expected Goals, xG wouldn’t be much kop if it didn't help with goals-related bets. Thankfully, it does.

We again turn to the Match Day 31 action in the 2024/25 Premier League season and the clash between Fulham and Liverpool at Craven Cottage.

Ahead of the game, Fulham had failed to score in three of their last seven home games. Liverpool, meanwhile, had scored one or fewer in four of their last five fixtures. Could a tight encounter be on the cards? xG presented a different picture. The previous Premier League games of Fulham posted an average of 2.8 total xG goals (xG-For + xG-Against), whilst the respective figure for Liverpool fixtures was 3.44. Despite recent performances, over 2.5 goals looked like a solid bet: Final score – Fulham 3 - 2 Liverpool.

Finishing Positions

Finally, xG can be particularly useful when placing longer-term punts on the finishing positions of the sides.

A good example from the 2024/25 season comes in the sad shape of Manchester United. On the 1st of January 2025, the beleaguered Red Devils languished in fourteenth position. However, many punters were still keen to take odds-on prices about the Old Trafford club finishing in the top half of the table.

Had those backing United assessed the xG stats, they may have come to a different conclusion. At the start of 2025, United were ranked 13th for xG-For, 12th for xG-Against, and 11th for xG points. The Red Devils were every inch a bottom-half side and had 5 points to make up on 10th-placed Brighton. Fast forward to April, United sat 13th in the table, ranked 13th for xG-For, xG-Against, and xG Points, and were seven points adrift of the top half with seven games remaining. Those odds-on quotes for a top-half finish were now out to as big as 12/1.

A Stat Worth Considering

xG isn't perfect - the ability of the player shooting isn't factored in, for one thing. However, this metric is well worth a place in your punting toolkit and may reveal insights which, without it, would have been missed.

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