Europa League Final Betting Preview


Europa League Final Betting Preview


The Premier League season may be over, but the big games aren’t done with just yet, with a number of major finals still to come. Saturday sees the big Manchester Derby in the FA Cup Final, West Ham bid to end an underwhelming campaign on a high in the UEFA Conference League Final on the 7th of June, before Manchester City take on Inter Milan in the Champions League Final on Saturday 10th June.

Before all that, we have what looks to be a cracking clash in Budapest, as José Mourinho’s Roma outfit takes on Spanish side Sevilla. In addition to the trophy, the winner of this automatically earns a spot in next season’s Champion’s League Group Stage. Sitting sixth and 11th, respectively, in their domestic leagues, this represents the only chance that either Roma or Sevilla have to dine at Europe’s top table next season...a lot on the line!

The Mourinho Factor

Love him or hate him, José Mourinho has proved time and time again that he is the man for the big occasion. During his career, Mourinho has made a total of five major European finals and won them all – lifting the UEFA Cup and Champions League with Porto, Champions League with Inter, Europa League with Man Utd, and the UEFA Conference League with Roma last season.

Sevilla Specialists in This Competition

Roma may have Mourinho on their side, but in Sevilla, they will be facing a side who have come close to making this competition their own in the current century, winning in 2006, 2007, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2020, and boasting a perfect record of six wins from six appearances in the final.

Roma The Better Side on the Stats

The league positions of the two sides would suggest that Roma are the better of these two sides, and that view is backed up by the stats taken from the respective league campaigns of the clubs.

Whilst Roma dominates across the board, it should be noted that Sevilla’s performance has taken a definite upturn since the arrival of new boss José Luis Mendilibar in March. Sevilla have lost only two of fifteen fixtures under his tutelage - improving from possible relegation contenders to the comfort of mid-table and a European Final.

A Tight Contest in Store

We suspect the manner in which this plays out will be dictated by José Mourinho’s famously negative approach to one-off games. All but ignoring his side’s Serie A fixtures since making this final, it seems likely that the mind of the "Special One" will have been focused on stopping Sevilla for some time. Given his record, he will most likely succeed.

Things will change markedly should Sevilla score first, forcing Roma to come out of their shells, but on balance, we favour Mourinho’s tactics and Roma’s stronger defence to see the Italian side nick a narrow win. Given the characteristics of the two sides, it also seems reasonable to expect a fair share of cards. When taken together, the semi-final and quarter-final fixtures of the sides produced an average of 56.25 booking points (10 points yellow, 25 points red) per game – Sevilla picking up an average of 27.5pts per game, and Roma 20pts. Interestingly, over those four knockout games, Sevilla have picked up a total of 36 corners, compared to just 16 for Roma.

With all of the above in mind, the following William Hill Build #YourOdds Bet makes plenty of appeal:

  • Roma to Win
  • Under 2.5 Goals
  • Over 49.5 Bookings Points
  • Sevilla to have the Most Bookings Points
  • Sevilla to have the Most Corners

A £10 Bet on the above Build #YourOdds Bet returns £130 with William Hill.

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