England v Spain: Euro 2024 Final Betting Preview
Unambitious, boring, one-dimensional, dull…despite the consistent criticism throughout the tournament, England are in the Final of the European Championships for the second successive edition – making the final of a major tournament for the first time on foreign soil. Perhaps Gareth does know what he's doing after all.
Already history makers, the 2024 edition of the Three Lions can cement their place in English footballing legend with just one more win. However, they have a rather significant obstacle to overcome in the shape of a Spanish outfit who have made it this far riding a wave of brilliant attacking football. Not picked out as likely winners by many before the tournament, they are favourites to lift the trophy for a fourth time and third since 2008.
Will the final go as the odds suggest? Or can England cause a minor upset? Sunday, 8pm is the time to find out as the nation tunes in to what promises to be a memorable encounter. Here (doing our best to put our patriotic head to one side but not doing that good a job), we pick out our best bets for the final.
Spain vs England – Head-to-Head
With one World Cup and three European Championships to their name, compared to England’s solitary World Cup victory in 1966, Spain are the more successful of the two nations historically. However, England holds the edge in the meetings between the sides – winning 14, drawing 3, and losing 10 of the previous 27 clashes.
The most recent meeting came in a 2018 UEFA Nations League clash in Sevilla; Raheem Sterling was the hero that day, hitting a brace in a 3-2 victory.
This will be the third meeting at the European Championship Finals and, encouragingly, England boast a perfect two-from-two record. Winning 2-1 in a 1980 Group stage clash, England then dispatched Spain on penalties in the Quarter Finals of Euro 96 – Stuart Pearce memorably exorcising the demons of 1990 with a thumping spot kick.
Routes to the Final
Spain
Spain have undoubtedly had the tougher route to the final. Landing in the “Group of Death” alongside fellow top ten sides, Spain quickly showed their class in comfortably dispatching Croatia and Italy before fielding their reserves in another win over minnows Albania. Three games, three wins, and three clean sheets - La Roja were in ominous form heading into the knockout phase. However, the draw again looked against them, with well-fancied France, Portugal, and hosts Germany ending up in their half of the draw.
Despite falling behind early, a Last 16 clash with Georgia was as one-sided as predicted before extra time was required to see off Germany in an even encounter. Next up France, and their toughest test yet. Despite taking the lead and doing a better job than most at stifling the Spanish attack, France had no answers to a sublime strike from Lamine Yamal and a well-taken Dani Olmo effort.
England
England have had things far easier – not that you would think it from watching the games. Good for half an hour in a 1-0 win over Serbia, they slipped below that low bar in a draw with Denmark before sending most to sleep in a goalless draw with Slovenia. Nevertheless, they topped the group and wound up in the soft half of the draw.
And then came the knockout phase. Anything the Group stage lacked in excitement, the knockout rounds made up for with last-gasp heroics – Jude Bellingham’s overhead kick with almost the last kick of the game, Bukayo Saka’s late leveller against Switzerland, and Ollie Watkins' stunning 91st-minute winner against the Netherlands - you would be forgiven for thinking that England’s name is on the trophy.
Tournament Stats
No surprise to see that Spain holds the edge in all the attack-related measures. Whilst a very high output against Georgia skews those stats, the quality of their other opponents has been higher than England’s opposition. England do hold sway on the defensive numbers, but we again need to bear in mind the average quality of the opposition.
Recommended Bets
Assessing respective form lines is always tricky in an event such as this. However, it’s hard to argue against Spain holding the overall edge.
The Spanish have faced three sides ranked in the top 10 in the World on their way to the final. England have faced only two inside the top 20. From that perspective, it is worth upgrading Spain's stats.
Of the sides Spain have faced, we consider the French to be the most similar to England, i.e. strong at the back and in the centre of the park with dangerous attacking players. It is, therefore, interesting to note that Spain lost the total shots, shots on target, and xG battle in that game. Hope for England yet?
We can’t quite bring ourselves to support England to lift the trophy, but we do fancy the Three Lions to get on the scoresheet. And if the Three Lions score, it may come early.
Spain’s front-foot approach from the off affords little chance to adjust to the opposition and can leave them vulnerable early – two of the three goals they have conceded came in the first 20 minutes. England, meanwhile, have shown a tendency to start relatively well from an attacking perspective – scoring after 13 minutes against Serbia, 18 minutes against Denmark, and threatening early against the Dutch. With that in mind, a bet on the first England goal to come in between the 10th and 20th minute looks worth a punt at decent odds.
At the same price, Coral’s offer for either team to lose, having taken the lead, also appeals. Should England score early, we have a likely Spain comeback on our side. On the other side of the coin, Spain notably retreated in the second half when leading against France, handing Les Bleus a few solid chances. France couldn’t take advantage, but England have already shown an ability to come on strong late thanks to their impressive weapons from the bench.
Finally, all three goals Spain have conceded stemmed from crosses into the area. With Kieren Trippier possibly making way for Luke Shaw, Phil Foden seems likely to be on most of the set pieces. That, combined with his ability to find a pass in open play, makes him a likely candidate to assist should England find the back of the net.
Best Bets
- England First Goal between 10:01 and 20:00 - 15/2 with Coral
- Either Team to Lead and Draw - 15/2 with Coral
- Phil Foden 1 or more assists - 6/1 with Coral
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