England v Argentina Betting Preview
Despite failing to impress everyone – including manager Thomas Tuchel in the win against Norway – England are one step away from a first World Cup Final since 1966. 39-year-old Lionel Messi and a tough Argentina stand between the Three Lions and a clash with Spain in the final.
England v Argentina is a fixture laden with history and more than its fair share of bad blood. If you are too young to remember Diego Maradona and the Hand of God (where was VAR in 1986?), you may recall David Beckham’s petulant kick sending Diego Simeone tumbling to the turf in instalments in 1998. What will unfold in the latest chapter?
With a clear head before the nerves and obligatory match-day pints set in – London Pride and Spitfire all the way for this occasion – it is time to pick out the best betting options for what promises to be an epic encounter.
England v Argentina: Head-to-Head Record
Wednesday evening’s clash represents the fifteenth meeting between England and Argentina. If you place any weight on historical trends, the results to date are encouraging, with England winning six of those games, losing only three, and drawing five.
The results in World Cup games are a little closer, but the Three Lions still hold the edge, with three wins to two for Argentina. The most recent meeting came in a 2005 international friendly in Geneva. England came out on top 3-2 in that one, thanks to a goal from Wayne Rooney and a late brace from Michael Owen.
Team News
No confirmed injuries for either side in this one. Lionel Messi leads a full-strength Argentina outfit as the living legend prepares to face England for the very first time. Jarell Quansah remains suspended for England. The main question for Thomas Tuchel is who will get the nod in the problematic right-back position.
Stats Analysis and Recommended Bets for England v Argentina
The stats from the tournament to date suggest we could be in for a tight encounter on Wednesday evening. The possession, corners, and cards-for stats are closely matched, while both sides have conceded an average of exactly a goal per game. With Messi on fire, Argentina have hit the back of the net more frequently, but the underlying xG-for numbers are identical. England’s xG-against is slightly worse than that of Argentina, but the average standard of opposition has been higher.
To create a more focused prediction on the numbers to expect, we need to adjust the possession figures to equal 100% - clearly England can’t have the ball 57.15% of the time and Argentina 60.15% of the time in the same game. Adjusting the stats to reflect this new predicted possession creates the following table.
Having pored over the stats, what do the results suggest in terms of potential betting opportunities? Let’s start with the correct score. Combining the actual goals for and against numbers creates a correct score prediction of England 1.54 – 1.80 Argentina. If we use the xG numbers, we get England 1.4 – 1.52 Argentina. Bearing in mind England’s slightly higher standard of opponent, this looks very even, leading me to my first two bets.
- Recommended Bet - Draw after 90 minutes @ 2/1 with Betfred
- Recommended Bet - Correct Score England 2 - 2 Argentina @ 16/1 with Betfred
If England are to score twice, the wide areas may provide a route to glory. Argentina have largely done well defending their box and central areas but look more vulnerable to wingers cutting inside. Of England’s two expected starters, Bukayo Saka is more reliable from distance than Anthony Gordon. At 40/1 with Betfred, the Arsenal man is worth a small punt to score from outside the area.
- Recommended Bet - Bukayo Saka to score from outside the area @ 40/1 with Betfred
England are favourites to progress, and that opinion extends into the stats markets, including corners. Betfred have England to win most corners at 4/5 and Argentina at 6/4. That difference looks too big, considering our combined corner stats create a prediction of 4.32 corners for England and 5.09 for Argentina. However, with the numbers so close, I can’t resist adding a smaller stakes wager on the Draw in the Most Corners market.
- Recommended Bet - Argentina most corners @ 6/4 with Betfred
- Recommended Bet - Most Corners: Draw @ 13/2 with bet365
Last but not least, from a stats perspective, what can we expect in terms of cards? Again, combining the predicted cards for and cards against stats of both sides, we get a prediction of 1.25 cards for England and 1.42 for Argentina, for a total of 2.67 cards. Referee Ismail Elfath has shown 8 yellows and 1 red in his three World Cup games for an average of 3 cards per game. Backing over 2.5 cards at around the 1/2 mark makes minimal appeal, considering our average expectation is only slightly over. Take a chance instead on the game finishing all square on bookings points (10 points for a yellow, 25 points for a red).
- Recommended Bet - Most Booking Points: Draw @ 11/4 with Betfred
Of course, I can’t let a big game pass by without a Bet Builder. Using the above analysis leads me to the following.
- Over 2.5 goals
- Over 2.5 cards
- Argentina most corners
- Bukayo Saka to score anytime
The above Bet Builder pays 22/1 with BetMGM.
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