Premier League Season 22/23 Betting Preview


Premier League Season 22/23 Betting Preview



The wait is over at long last. True it may only be under three months since the end of the 2021/22 Premier League campaign, but for fans of the world’s greatest league, it always feels a lot longer.

What lies ahead between now and next May is one of the more unique campaigns in Premier League history. The first ever winter World Cup in Qatar sees the season take a break from mid-November through to Boxing Day, whilst the introduction of the five-substitute rule adds an intriguing new dynamic to proceedings. Plenty to look forward to, and here we pick out our best bets in each of the main betting markets.

Winner

Successful four times in the past five years, Manchester City are a 4/7 shot with Betfred to retain their title. Those keen to oppose the side from the Etihad question how Erling Haaland will slot into a side not used to playing with an out and out number nine. However, whilst it may take him a little time to find his feet, the addition of one of the most feared forwards on the planet, to what is already a fearsome attacking unit, may well spell trouble for their rivals.

Liverpool are next best at 5/2 with Betfred, and having finished 18 points clear of third-placed Chelsea last term, do seem likely to pose the biggest threat once again. The addition of Darwin Nunez in place of Sadio Mané will require a little tinkering, but if deployed centrally he’s the type of forward to relish service from wide areas - which he will receive in abundance. We don’t see the Reds being too far away.

Chelsea filled third spot in 21/22, having looked like genuine title challengers in the pre-Christmas period only to fall away. Undoubtedly unsettled by the Roman Abramovich situation, the club at least head into the season on a firm footing and have made a couple of quality signings in Raheem Sterling and Kalidou Koulibaly. They are however without a genuine striker in the squad and may struggle to hold onto that third spot.

Tottenham Hotspur in contrast appear to be firmly in the ascendancy having improved dramatically under the excellent Antonio Conté. Backed to the hilt by the board over the summer, with Yves Bissouma, Richarlison, Ivan Perisic and others coming in, Conté has built a squad which looks stronger than ever. 21 points behind second-placed Liverpool last time around, expect to see that gap close.

Whilst City do look the most likely winners, they are priced accordingly. The best value to our eyes lies in splitting stakes between two tricasts involving a Spurs side who we expect to have a big season.

Recommended Bets:

  • Tricast: Man City – Liverpool – Tottenham - 13/2 with Betfred
  • Tricast: Man City – Tottenham – Liverpool - 14/1 with Coral

Top Goalscorer

Turning to the top scorer market, it is the expected names which dominate the betting. Erling Haaland (11/4 with William Hill), has the ability to go clear if settling quickly, but that’s a short enough price for his first season in England. Mohamed Salah (9/2 William Hill), and Harry Kane (6/1) are previous winners and should go close, but again haven’t been missed by the market.

With the majority of firms paying out on the top four finishers, we prefer an each-way punt on Arsenal’s new frontman, Gabriel Jesus (12/1 Betfred). Never really given a consistent run in the side at Manchester City, the Brazilian nevertheless boasted an excellent goals-to-minutes ratio. Now the focal point of a young and improving Arsenal side, we like the look of the 25-year-old to register a 20+ goal season.

Recommended Bet:

  • Top Scorer: Gabriel Jesus each way - 12/1 with Bet365

Winner/Top Scorer Special

No surprise that Man City/Haaland is the clear favourite at less than half the price of the next best option. 4/1 seems a little on the stingy side for a double though and we prefer to look elsewhere.

The price that catches the eye is Liverpool/Darwin Nunez at 28/1 with William Hill. If Liverpool are to overhaul City, much depends on how well Nunez can fill the Sadio Mané void. Mané himself shared the trophy in 2018/19, and Nunez would be considered a more traditional goal-getter than the Senegal international. He’ll certainly get the chances in this Liverpool side, and if able to hit the ground running, he, and Liverpool could go close.

Recommended Bets:

  • Winner/Top Scorer Double: Liverpool/Darwin Nunez - 28/1 with William Hill

Relegation

Promoted from the Championship last season, Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, and Fulham are the bookmaker’s favourites to be heading straight back down. However, it doesn’t always work out that way. Looking back at the past ten seasons, at least one of the promoted clubs has managed to survive every year, with two staying up in 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2018/19, and all three beating the drop in 2016/17. All of which suggests it may pay to look beyond the obvious.

Our best bet for the drop is Leeds United. In Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips, the Elland Road club has lost their two genuinely top-class players and replaced them with relatively unknown quantities from Jesse Marsch’s former clubs. Considering they only survived by the skin of their teeth last time around, and can no longer count on the shock factor of “Bielsa Ball”, they may well find themselves in trouble.

Others worth considering are a Southampton outfit who are worryingly inconsistent at the back and, Wolves who simply don’t score enough goals. However, we wouldn’t be surprised should it all finally come unstuck at Everton, who continue to pay the price for a sequence of disastrous transfer windows. Frank Lampard fails to convince, Richarlison has not been replaced, and Dele Alli probably isn’t the man to light up a one-dimensional midfield. Another season of struggle awaits.

Recommended Bets:

  • Leeds United to be Relegated - 9/4 with betfair
  • Everton to be Relegated - 7/2 with 888sport

Other Markets

Our final bet comes in the betting without the Big 6 market, where Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United side look worthy favourites. Thus far the North East Club may not have had the spectacular summer transfer window many expected, but from January onwards only Liverpool and Manchester City picked up more points than the Magpies. Anything close to that level of form will see them at least going close to a top-six finish. With the summer window not yet closed, and a late attacking arrival expected, to supplement the captures of Sven Botman and Nick Pope, we like their chances of pipping West Ham to seventh spot.

Recommended Bet:

  • Betting without the Big 6: Newcastle United - 9/4 with Ladbrokes

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