Norway v England Betting Preview
The World Cup has reached its quarter-final stage, with an intriguing clash between England and Norway at the Miami Stadium on Saturday (22:00 GMT) leading the way.
Both overcame the odds, to some extent, in the last 16, with England defeating Mexico 3-2 in their own backyard – complete with challenging local conditions, while Norway made a mockery of their underdog status by defeating Brazil 2-1.
To Miami then, where temperatures are expected to reach 35 degrees on Saturday with intense humidity and the threat of thunderstorms; a different kind of challenge for these two teams.
Who will survive the swamp-like conditions and book a semi-final place?
Tip #1 – England to Win (20/21, PricedUp)
When England took on Mexico, the consensus was that Thomas Tuchel’s men were the better side on paper, but it was the Estadio Azteca – and the Mexicans’ fine record at the unique venue – that would prove to be the leveller.
There’s no such edge at the Miami Stadium, where the conditions will inconvenience both sides, although the Three Lions proved in Mexico that they can adapt to whatever is thrown at them.
Media reports suggest that Declan Rice and Marc Guehi have missed training this week as they nurse injuries, but that may be a precautionary measure. And Jarrell Quansah is suspended after getting sent off against the Mexicans.
But even so, there’s a feeling that if you can cut off the supply line to Erling Haaland, there isn’t much of a threat from Norway otherwise.
And defensively, they have conceded in every game they have played in the World Cup so far – if Brazil had scored at least one, or both, of their penalties in that last 16 clash, the Norwegians might not even be in the competition at this point…
Tip #2 – Both Teams to Score – No (13/10, BetGoodwin)
Tip #3 – Under 2.5 Goals (11/10, Star Sports)
Have the bookmakers overestimated the Haaland effect here?
Norway have scored 12 goals in the World Cup so far, with Haaland banging in seven of them – that’s 58%. So, if you can find a way to keep the Man City frontman quiet, you’ve broken the back of keeping a clean sheet.
No disrespect to the Norwegians, but they don’t possess a huge goal threat at this level beyond Haaland, which is why opposing goals in this encounter might be the smartest way to go.
Games at the Miami Stadium have seen goals so far, but many of those were one-sided group games – not the knee-trembling terror of knockout stage football. Plus, Saturday’s clash will be played in the hottest conditions that the venue has seen so far.
There are different ways to play this angle: England to win 1-0 or 2-0 will suit those of a high risk-high reward disposition, but either Both Teams to Score (No) or Under 2.5 Goals can be deployed as well – or both in a double, should you prefer.
Tip #4 – Harry Kane Over 1.5 Shots On Target (13/10, Ladbrokes/Coral)
Norway have conceded seven goals from open play in the World Cup so far: only Iraq and Algeria have shipped more in the tournament to date.
That suggests that they are, fundamentally, vulnerable defensively, and there’s no England player better placed to take advantage than Harry Kane.
He’s averaging 3.8 shots per game and 2.0 shots on target per 90 minutes, so in theory he’ll only have to perform to his baseline level in order for this selection to land.
Normally, a quarter final would be a step up in class, but given Norway’s defensive frailties, this is a game that England should find plenty of joy going forward – expect Kane to lead from the front once more.
Bet Builder: 11/1 with Bet365
You can package up those four selections above and stick them into a bet builder, which will pay in the region of 11/1.
There is often a temptation with bet builders to take a deep dive and start betting on player passes, tackles, fouls and the like, but sometimes the ‘macro’ level stuff – match winner, total goals etc – are the most predictive.
Based on the evidence of what we’ve seen so far and the quality of the two teams, most would agree that England are a fair favourite here in a game that – not aided by the sweltering conditions – may be somewhat lacking in action and goals.
Harry Kane, once again, is likely to be the driving force behind a possible Three Lions victory.
- England to Win
- Harry Kane 2+ Shots On Target
- Under 2.5 Goals
- Both Teams to Score (No)
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