Mexico vs England Betting Preview
The World Cup has reached its Round of 16… and the games are becoming more and more interesting.
Take Mexico vs England, for example. On paper, England have the better players and should, in theory, prevail.
But Mexico’s record at the Estadio Azteca is extraordinary; they have only ever lost twice at the venue since it opened in 1966 – that’s from 89 competitive games.
The altitude is likely to be a factor: the stadium sits 2,200 metres above sea level, which is twice as high as England’s biggest mountain (Scafell Pike).
The humidity regularly tops 80% as well, so while it’s not excruciatingly hot in Mexico City, the England players are still likely to feel fatigued and very inconvenienced by the conditions.
All of which adds up to a fascinating contest… and one that offers some unique opportunities for punters.
Tip #1 – Game Decided In Extra Time – Yes (11/2, Bet365)
Tip #2 – Game Decided By Penalties – Yes (9/2, Bet365)
On face value, this betting strategy looks foolish; of course, both of these things can’t win.
However, the draw odds are a general 23/10, so we can actually secure a better return by backing these two markets than the draw itself.
Whenever you analyse a football game and find it too close to call, backing the draw (or a variation of it, in this case) can be the value play.
You can make a case for England… players like Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham are capable of winning tight games. But you can also see Mexico enjoying conditions on home soil; the Three Lions are not going to be used to this sort of altitude and intense humidity.
If in doubt, back the two options described above with bet365.
Tip #3 – Both Teams to Score (11/10, Betway)
One of the most concerning factors for England fans is their side’s defensive vulnerability.
DR Congo carved the Three Lions open, taking the lead before witnessing Yoan Wissa hit the post.
Ghana and Panama both created chances too, while Croatia netted twice against England in their opener. Given Mexico’s sparky counter attacking, the fear is that they too will find a route to Jordan Pickford’s goal.
The Mexicans don’t concede many goals, especially at the Estadio Azteca, and of course they’ve kept four clean sheets in as many outings at the World Cup so far.
But they haven’t met a side with England’s attacking weapons either, which extend beyond Kane and Bellingham to the likes of Gordon, Rashford, Saka, Rogers, Watkins and even the centre backs from set pieces, which the Three Lions are so effective at.
Given that we’re predicting a draw and both teams to score, plucky punters may opt for the 1-1 or 2-2 correct scores at meaty prices.
But our preference is for a simple BTTS selection, which is available at an industry best price of 11/10 with Betway (at the time of writing).
Tip #3 – Cesar Montes Over 0.5 Shots On Target (6/1, Ladbrokes/Coral)
We know that our readers like to back a longshot or two from time to time, so how about getting 6ft 4in beast Cesar Montes on side.
The centre back is dominant aerially, winning eight headers in just three World Cup appearances so far.
As per WhoScored, Montes averages 0.7 shots per game since 2022 – evidently, most of these will have come from attacking corners and wide free kicks and winning that first contact header.
Obviously a selection like this needs a slice of luck and the pieces to fall into place, but 6/1 – available with sister brands Coral and Ladbrokes – is a mouth-watering price for Montes to record a shot on target against England.
Bet Builder: 4.5/1 with Betfred
Mexico will happily sit deep against England and then look to hit them on the break; the fact they’ve had less than 50% possession in each of their last three games is evidence of that.
Leading their counter will be the slippery left winger Julian Quinones, who is quick, agile and an excellent ball carrier. Right back has been a problem position for England during the tournament, so Quinones could cause chaos down that flank.
England will of course look to Harry Kane for leadership. It’s a role he revels in and one that gets the absolute best out of his world class talent.
One of the ways that Kane’s desperation to lead from the front manifests itself is in his shots on goal. He’s scored five in four thus far, averaging 4.5 shots per 90 minutes and 2.3 shots on target.
Mexico is a sterner test than what’s come before for England, but Kane’s magnificence and willingness to shoot from all angles really does lend itself to this selection.
3, 0, 1, 3.
That’s not morse code: that’s how many corners Mexico have won in their four games so far.
Their over/under corners line against England has been set at 4.5, so there’s surely no harm in backing the unders side and expecting that pattern to continue.
- Julian Quinones to Be Fouled 2+
- Harry Kane 2+ Shots On Target
- Mexico Under 4.5 Corners
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