How Much Difference Does the Jockey Make?
There are many factors to consider when analysing a horse race – recent form, distance, going, pedigree, and the human elements provided by the trainer and jockey.
The importance of that last factor is the subject of debate amongst punters; some believe the rider on board is one of the least significant influences on the result of a race, whilst others care little about the actual horse and simply back whichever runner their favourite rider happens to be aboard. That strategy didn’t work out too badly when Frankie Dettori went through the card at Ascot in 1996 or, more recently, when the evergreen Italian rattled in six winners at Santa Anita. So who has it right? Does the jockey matter? And if so, how much?
Of Course The Jockey Matters
First of all, in our humble opinion, the man or woman aboard a horse undoubtedly impacts the result of a race. The most common analogy comes via a comparison with Formula 1. Taking Red Bull Racing as an example, Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez drive the same car, and yet, in the last three seasons (2021, 2022, 2023) Verstappen has won 47 times from 66 Grand Prix, whilst Perez has a record of 5 wins from 66 Grand Prix. True, there may be some element of team tactics in those results, but Verstappen has earned the right to be prioritised by consistently achieving the most with the same machine.
Horses are not machines, but they still need steering; very few would win a race without the presence of a jockey on board – at least not deliberately. Whilst horses naturally like to gallop with the pack, they are blissfully unaware of the distance of a race, the course they are required to take, or when to pick up the pace on the run for the line. Those tasks fall under the remit of the man or woman on board. As with all things in life, some individuals are better at performing certain tasks than others, whether as a result of innate talent, a wealth of experience, or sheer dedication to the art of horsemanship.
Measuring Jockey Impact
Placing a number on jockey impact is a notoriously difficult task, due to the scarcity of data regarding different jockeys riding the same horse on a statistically significant number of occasions. Nevertheless, a look at the current best in the business – Ryan Moore – should illustrate that all jockeys are not created equally.
The table below contains the ten trainers from whom Ryan Moore has received the most British rides throughout his career – showing the overall win rate of the trainer in question and the win rate when Ryan Moore has been in the saddle.
The results are pretty striking, with Moore outperforming the trainer average in every instance – sometimes dramatically. Of course, Moore is now at the top of his game and, as such, has the chance to ride the more fancied runners, but that wasn’t always the case. The above table encompasses 1000s of rides across all stages of the rider's career – from his days as an up-and-coming apprentice to his current status as the best flat jockey of the modern era.
The Value of Experience
Confirmation of the differences between riders is found in the area of Apprentice Jockeys on the flat and Conditional Riders over jumps. These categories encompass those jockeys only just setting out on their career and unavoidably lacking the race riding experience and track knowledge of the more senior members of the weighing room.
Logic dictates that these riders are at a disadvantage in any given race, and the British Racing Authorities recognise this fact – when competing against professional riders, all Apprentice and Conditional Jockeys receive a weight allowance, i.e., their mount will be required to carry less weight than ordinarily be the case. This weight allowance steadily increases over time in line with the number of wins achieved. Why would the BHA enforce this system if there was no difference between riders?
All jockeys tend to improve as they rack up an increasing number of rides, reducing the experience disparity. However, differences between natural skill levels are harder to erase, resulting in the most talented riders rising to the top. Apprentice jockeys are, however, well worth keeping an eye on. Most Champion Jockeys began as an Apprentice or Conditional – spot one of such talent early in their career, and that weight allowance can be worth its weight in gold.
In Summary: An Important Factor, but not the Only Factor
So, should you consider the jockey in the saddle when picking out a bet? We would suggest you should. Some place the importance as high as 75%. That seems too high, with the Ryan Moore table suggesting an average of around 36%.
However, it is important to remember that Moore is the best around. The differences between two randomly selected jockeys will be far less than that - but those differences do exist, and in a sport so often decided by small margins, a difference of a couple of percent is certainly worth having on your side. Never neglect the importance of the trainer and, most crucially, the ability of the horse, but when faced with a close decision, the jockey can make all the difference.
You might also be interested in:
Top 20 Betting Offers
|
18+ | New players only. Opt-in. Min deposit is £20. Offer: Place a £20 sports cash bet at minimum odds of 3/4 (1.75) or higher and receive a £20 Free Bet. Free bet credited upon settlement of all qualifying bets. Free Bet can be redeemed on selected sports & markets and used on single or accumulator bets (min. 3 selections). Free Bet must be used at minimum odds of 4/5 (1.80). Free Bet stake is not returned with winnings. Winnings are credited as withdrawable cash. Maximum odds of 10.00 may apply. Free Bet must be used within 7 days of being credited. Affordability checks may apply. Full terms apply. | BeGambleAware.org. |
|||||
|
18+. New customers only. Opt in required. Minimum bet of £20 on any selections. Min odds of evens (2.00). Pre-game only. Free bet awarded upon settlement. Free bet split into 4 x £5. Free bet on accumulators only. Free bet expiry 24 hours. Other free bet terms apply. Maximum pay-outs apply. GamCare.org.uk | UK only. Full T&Cs apply. #ad |
|||||
|
New customers. Bet £40+ at odds 2.0 (evens) or greater, with code BET40GET20, get 2×£10 Free Bets. Free Bets must be placed at min odds 4/1 (5.0) or greater, paid after settlement and 24h later, expire in 24h. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org |
|||||
|
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org. |
|||||
|
18+ New customers only. Opt in and bet up to £40 (min. £20) via mobile or app on any football (odds 1/1+) within 7 days of registration. Get up to £40 in free bets on selected markets, which expire in 7 days. T&Cs apply, see below. GambleAware.org | Please gamble responsibly |
|||||
|
New customers only. Applies to the 1st deposit using code WELCOME7. Min deposit £20. Min qualifying bet £20 at odds 1/1 (2.0). Cash‑out not permitted. Bonus Bets issued as 1×£7 BB (any sport excl. Virtuals), followed by 1×£7 BB (Horse Racing, SP/EW excluded) and 1×£7 BB (Football ACCA, min 4 selections, min odds 4.0). Bonus Bet stake not returned. Bonus Bets valid 5 days from credit. Max winnings £500 / £500 / £100 per Bonus Bet. One per customer. General T&Cs apply. BeGambleAware.org | 18+ |
|||||
|
New customers online only. Only valid with code B10G40 on registration. Bet a min £/€10 at odds of 1/1 (2.0) across sports or racing within 7 days of registration. Receive £/€20 Tote Credit, £/€10 Free Sports Bet and 2 x £/€5 Bet Builder within 48 hours of qualifying bet settlement. Qualifying bet is the first racing pool or sports bet added to bet slip. Voided/non-runner bets will not qualify; subsequent bet will be qualifying bet. 7-day expiry. 18+. One per customer. Selected customers only. Full T&Cs apply. Gambleaware.org. Full T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
T&Cs apply. 18+ New customers only. You must place a single win-only bet of £10 or more with odds of evens (2.00) or greater to qualify. Money back as £10 in free bets. Free bet is credited the day after the qualifying bet has settled. Must use code B10G10 when creating an account. |
|||||
|
18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 6 x £5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned). Restrictions + T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
New customers only. Min £20 bet at odds 2.00+. Max reward: One £10 Free Bet and two £5 Combo Free Bets. £10 Free Bet min odds 1/1 (2.00). £5 Combo Free Bets min odds 2/1 (3.0). Free Bets expire 7 days after credit. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. |
|||||
|
*New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs + deposit exclusions apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org. 18+ |
|||||
|
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. virtuals) at 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accepted in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs + deposit exclusions apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org. 18+ |
|||||
|
Place a £10 fixed odds Outright winner cash bet on a nation to win the World Cup. Once the bet is placed, receive 1 x free £10 fixed odds bet, 1 x free £10 football Total Goals spread bet and 1 x free £10 football Supremacy spread bet. Then receive a further free £10 fixed odds bet for every match your chosen nation wins during the World Cup, to a maximum of 7 wins. Offer expires at 9pm on Tues 23rd June 2026. 18+ www.gambleaware.org. |
|||||
|
18+ | GambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Opt in. Deposit & Stake £10 on slots to get 100 x £0.20 Free Spins on Sweet Bonanza with 10x wagering on free spins. Debit card or instant bank transfer only. Claim within 7 days. Spins expire within 48 hours. Geographical restrictions and T&Cs apply. #AD |
|||||
|
Offer valid for new Betgoodwin customers aged 18 years and over. Min qualifying stake £10 at odds of 6/4+. Excludes horse & greyhound racing. Min 4 legs at odds of 2/5+ for £10 free acca. Full Terms apply. begambleaware |
|||||
|
18+| GambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Opt in. Deposit and Bet £10+ on sports at min odds of 2.0+ (1/1) for £30 in Free Bets within 7 days. Debit cards or instant bank transfers only. Free bets expire within 7 days of issue. Geographical restrictions and T&C’s apply.#AD |
|||||
|
New sportsbook customers only. Place £10 first bet at min odds 1/2 to get £20 Free Bet. Stake not returned. Free Bet valid 7 days, min odds 1/2. Settled bets only. One welcome offer per customer (not with 50% Net Loss Refund). 18+. Full T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
New customers only. Min £20 bet at odds 2.00+. Max reward: One £10 Free Bet and two £5 Combo Free Bets. £10 Free Bet min odds 1/1 (2.00). £5 Combo Free Bets min odds 2/1 (3.0). Free Bets expire 7 days after credit. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
#AD | Welcome bonus for new players only | Maximum bonus is 100% up to £100 | Min. deposit is £10 | No max cash out | Wagering is 40x bonus | Maximum bet with an active bonus is £5 | Eligibility is restricted for suspected abuse | Skrill & Neteller deposits excluded for welcome bonus | Cashback when offered, applies to deposits where no bonus is included | Cashback is cash with no restrictions | T&C's apply |Free bet: Min odds: 2.0 - Free bet value will be deducted from free bet winnings | 18+ | BeGambleAware.org | Gambling is addictive, please gamble responsibly! |
