Europa League Final Betting Preview
Quite how Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have made it this far on the back of truly atrocious Premier League seasons is one of the great mysteries of 2025.
All the more galling, for those not of a Red Devils or Spurs persuasion, is that the winner will tiptoe through the back door into the rich wonderland of the Champions League next season.
What Do the Numbers Say
Let’s begin by looking at a few stats. Nothing like cold, hard numbers to provide a little unbiased clarity.
No surprise that both sides have lost more games than they have won of late. Elsewhere, the numbers suggest that Spurs tend to be involved in wide-open games, whereas United don’t. That trend carries through to the expected goals figures, with Spurs boasting a significantly higher attacking output, but United edging the defensive figures. So far, so tough to split.
A look at the Premier League table doesn’t help much either, with the sides separated by only 1 point in real points and just 0.13 of an xG point. With an average xG difference of -0.04, Spurs come out ahead of United on -0.17. As initially suspected, these sides are just about as bad as each other.
Head-to-Head Record
Very little to split the teams so far, but a look at the recent head-to-heads adds a little substance. This season, Ange Postecoglu’s men have beaten United 1-0 in North London, 3-0 at Old Trafford, and 4-3 in the EFL Cup. Racking up over 20 shots in each of the league wins, Spurs had little trouble creating chances.
So Why Are United Favourites?
So far, the sides are all but inseparable on the stats. If anything, Spurs hold the edge thanks to the recent head-to-head record - they haven't suffered defeat at the hands of United since 2022. And yet, United are priced at 6/5 in the 90-minute market, compared to 7/4 for Spurs.
Many will suggest that United deserve this status. They are, after all, “The Mighty Manchester United” and in Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes, have players used to manning up when it matters and lifting trophies. Whilst there is possibly something in that, will the presence of a past-his-prime 33-year-old and United’s one genuinely elite player be enough?
When looking at the possible lineups below, it is debatable how many of the United players would actually get into the Spurs team. We would suggest not many.
What stands out is the significant pace advantage in the Spurs side, with Son, Johnson, and Odobert surely relishing the chance to run past Casemiro and test the legs of Maguire and Lindelof.
The Bets
In all honesty, we aren’t convinced either of these sides is up to lifting this trophy. However, somebody has to. Swayed by the starting eleven quality and head-to-head record, we are prepared to bet that side will be Spurs. Those odds of 7/4 for a win in 90 minutes look perfectly fair.
If there is a man to put United to the sword, we suspect it may be Dominik Solanke. The ex-Bournemouth forward missed the game between the sides in February, but notched a brace at Old Trafford and netted in the Carabao Cup success. With runners all around him likely to drag Maguire and co out of position, Solanke is a nice price to be the first to find the net.
Our final selection centres around card-happy referee Felix Zwayer. The German arbiter has presided over nine European fixtures this season – dishing out 43 yellows and four red cards over these games, for an average of over five per game. Odds of 5/4 for over five cards make limited appeal. However, considering he has sent off four men in nine games, we can’t resist a small punt on it becoming all too much for United’s skipper.
- Recommended Bet - Spurs to win in 90 minutes @ 15/8
- Recommended Bet - Dominik Solanke to score first @ 13/2
- Recommended Bet - Bruno Fernandes to be shown a Red Card @ 20/1
- Recommended Bet - Bet Builder on the above three selections @ 150/1
All prices quoted are with Betfred.
Euro Finals Treble
This battle of the Premier League minnows is only the first of three European finals in the coming weeks – all three of which are available to watch for free in the UK.
On Wednesday 28th, Chelsea travel to Poland to take on a Real Betis side who are set to finish sixth in La Liga. Having swept all before them with a near reserve side so far, we expect the Blues to field their big guns here, which should be enough to lift the trophy.
Last, but by no means least, the biggest club game in the world, as PSG bid to finally claim the Champions League title against Inter Milan in Munich on Saturday, 31st May. We make this a coin toss and, as such, will take a chance on the Nerazzurri extending the Parisians' wait to lift the famous trophy. Too good for Barca in the semis, this doesn't look any tougher on paper.
A £10 treble on Spurs, Chelsea, and Inter Milan to lift the respective trophies returns £63 with Betfred
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