England v DR Congo Betting Preview
All eyes on Atlanta this Wednesday teatime as England take their next step towards MetLife Stadium on 19 July. Will the journey continue? Or run aground against a DR Congo outfit playing their first-ever World Cup knockout fixture?
As the fourth-best side in the world according to FIFA, England really ought to have too much for the 41st-ranked DR Congo. The odds agree with that assessment. Betfred, Coral, and bet365 all make England a 2/7 chance to win in 90 minutes, with 1/10 the general price for those who wish to back the Three Lions to progress by any means.
Having witnessed the Three Lions flounder on the World Cup rocks for the best part of 40 years, adding to the stress by lumping on Thomas Tuchel’s men makes zero appeal. However, I can’t let the match pass by without a few lower stake/higher reward punts.
The Story of the Group Stage
It’s fair to say that the Group phase made for largely frustrating viewing for England fans. Barring the second half against Croatia, and a short Jude Bellingham-inspired spell against Panama, the side have laboured to success. Anyone expecting a swashbuckling dismantling of lower-ranked opposition has so far been left disappointed.
Faced with low blocks against Ghana and Panama, England combined a lack of penetration with a worrying vulnerability on the break. Two clean sheets out of three were largely a result of a poor refereeing decision against Ghana and Panama’s lack of a cutting edge.
From an attacking perspective, England’s pace in wide areas was effective against Croatia, but Anthony Gordon and, to a lesser extent, Nodi Madueke, had few answers when running into the brick walls of Ghana and Panama. The bad news here is that most are expecting DR Congo to deploy similarly defensive tactics – no doubt buoyed by witnessing Paraguay defend their way to dumping Germany out of the competition.
DR Congo’s defensive ethos served them well in their opening game, as they held Portugal to a surprise 1-1 draw. They then came close to repeating the trick when losing only 1-0 to an impressive Colombia side. Finally, the African side showed they can come out of their shells when they need to, running out deserved 3-1 winners over a limited Uzbekistan.
Team News
With doubts surrounding Reece James and Jarrel Quansah, England are light in the right-back position, with Djed Spence expected to start. Having been rested against Panama, the return of Declan Rice in midfield should lend England some much-needed stability against the counter. There are no injury concerns for DR Congo.
Best Bets: Go Against the Grain with Comfortable England Win
The general consensus ahead of this game is that DR Congo will park the bus, and England will struggle to break them down. It certainly seems likely that the underdogs will retreat into their shells, rather than opening up as they did against Uzbekistan.
Averaging only 30.6% possession against Portugal and Colombia, Sébastien Desabre’s men are likely to let England have the ball and attempt occasional counterattacks. However, there is no guarantee that strategy will succeed, and drawing hard-and-fast conclusions from a sample of only a couple of games is a little risky.
It’s hard to argue too strongly against a turgid low-scoring affair, but DR Congo may just be a little flattered by their defensive record. They escaped against Portugal largely due to lethargic play from the opposition, and a particularly cumbersome showing from a certain CR7. Against Colombia, they were fortunate to concede only once, having shipped nine shots on target.
While conceding more than once in only two of 12 World Cup qualifiers, the likes of Sudan, Togo, Mauritania, and South Sudan don’t possess anything like the attacking weapons of England. In DR Congo’s two qualifying games against African opposition actually at the finals, they conceded three times against both Morocco and Senegal. If England can improve – and they surely must at some point given the attacking weapons at their disposal – they can at least match that tally. And remember, it was only a couple of games ago that they hit Croatia for four.
The single event that will help England to a comfortable victory is, of course, an early goal. The group phase gives me hope that England can catch DR Congo cold. In their three group games, Congo conceded a shot on target in the first five minutes against Portugal. Against Colombia, they conceded two shots on target and one against the crossbar in the space of the first ten minutes. Finally, in their win over Uzbekistan, they allowed a shot on target and a goal in the first ten minutes.
Splitting stakes on Over 0.5 goals in the first ten minutes, Over 2.5 goals in the first half, and England to score over 2.5 goals will produce a profit if England hit three and, if all goes well, I might be putting my feet up with three winners by half-time.
- Recommended Bet - First 10 minutes: Over 0.5 Goals, 1pt @ 7/2 with bet365
- Recommended Bet - First Half Goals: Over 2.5, 1pt @ 7/1 with bet365
- Recommended Bet - England Over 2.5 Goals, 2pts @ 13/8 with bet365
Goals Galore in Late Fixture
With England hopefully safely through to the last 16, the 9pm fixture promises to be a cracker as Belgium take on Senegal in Seattle. The first thought here is that Senegal are possibly underestimated at 5/2 in the 90 minutes market. However, at a slightly bigger price, I prefer over 3.5 goals in the game.
Having registered 23 shots against Iran and an incredible 35 against New Zealand, Belgium should find room to hurt a Senegal side who, while organised, have been blighted by individual errors – conceding three against France and Norway in the Group phase. On the other side of the coin, Senegal possess the type of threat on the break that can cut through a pace-less Belgium midfield and attack a far-from-watertight backline.
- Recommended Double - England to Score Over 2.5 Goals and Over 3.5 Goals in the Belgium v Senegal game - £10 double returns @ £98.44 with bet365
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