Derby di Milano - Betting Preview
There’s a touch of nostalgia about the Serie A table at the moment, as Inter sit top with city rivals Milan just behind in second. Once a familiar site, you now have to look back a decade for the last time these two lead the table at this stage of the season. This rediscovered Milanese dominance, along with the fiery sub-plots from their last meeting still fresh in the memory, should make for a lively clash on Sunday afternoon.
The Form
Inter are in fine form in the league, unbeaten in the last 6 and with only one defeat in their last 18. Most recently on Sunday they saw off fellow form team Lazio, 3 – 1, with two goals from the league's top-scorer Lukaku and a third from Lautaro Martinez. This win moved them above Milan who suffered a surprising defeat at Spezia the day before - a performance which saw Milan fail to register a single shot on target. As unexpected as this result was, it’s not the first time Milan have fluffed their lines recently, with defeats to Atalanta and Juventus giving them 3 losses from their last 7 and leaving the door open for Inter to overtake.
Head to Head
This will be the third “Derby della Madonnina” this season, with honours even from the previous two. Milan won the League clash 2 – 1 back in October as they set off as early pace-setters in Serie A, then Inter won the more recent Coppa Italia quarter final, again 2-1, in a contest that will be remembered for the heated exchanges between former Man Utd teammates Ibrahimovic and Lukaku. Both players received yellows for their part in the confrontations, with Zlatan later picking up a second yellow and an early bath.
This will be the third “Derby della Madonnina” this season, with honours even from the previous two.
Looking further back it’s Inter who have had the upper-hand in recent years, doing the double over Milan in the last 2 seasons and, prior to their win in October, you have to go back to January 2016 for the last time Milan took all 3 points from this game.
Injuries and Suspensions
Milan have been in midweek Europa League action away at Red Star Belgrade (2 – 2 draw). However as expected Stefano Pioli made several changes to his starting 11, including resting key man Ibrahimovic. Looking ahead to Sunday Milan will welcome back first choice right back Davide Calabria who was suspended for the defeat at Spezia, and also Midfielder Sandro Tonali who played 50 mins at Red Star after missing the last 3 league games with muscle discomfort. However, the derby looks to be coming too early for Brahim Diaz who is still sidelined with a thigh injury.
Inter meanwhile, have no European distractions and therefore a full week to prepare for derby day. Antonio Conte does not have any new injury concerns and the main question will be who gets the nod to start in midfield between a revitalised Christian Eriksen and Arturo Vidal who is fighting his way back to fitness after a knee injury.
Predictions
Inter go into this as favourites, generally priced at even money across the market, with Milan and the draw both around 13/5. Taking form and everything else into consideration we think this is fair.
That said, this is a derby and Milan are having a fine campaign that has exceeded the expectations of many pre-season speculators. They will be up for the fight and we expect goals. Four out of the last five derbies has seen both teams score and with that in mind you can get “Both Teams To Score and Inter to Win” priced at 11/4.
Milan’s main goal threat is undoubtedly Zlatan, the Swede has scored 14 from just 12 league appearances so far this season and averages 5.28 shots per game. You wouldn’t bet against one of those finding the back of the net in a game he will surely be up for, and bet365 offer Zlatan to score anytime at 11/10.
In summary, the Nerazzurri look determined to take the big prize this year after losing out by just one point to Juve last season, so to take the 3 points, continue their momentum and to get one over their closest rivals, will be a big step towards that goal.
Milan v Inter Betting Tips
- Inter to Win @ Evens (2.0)
- Both Teams to Score and Inter to Win @ 11/4 (3.75)
- Inter to Win, Both Teams to Score and Ibrahimovic to Score Anytime @ 6/1 (7.0) with bet365 betbuilder
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