Premier League - New Season Betting Preview
Not long to go now, with the 2023/24 Premier League season kicking off on Friday 11th August. On the back of a thrilling 2022/23 campaign, in which Arsenal pushed Manchester City (almost) all the way, Newcastle United gate-crashed the Champions League party, and Leeds and Leicester slightly surprisingly went down, what will the upcoming season have in store?
Here we look at the main contenders for the title, the top 4 candidates, and those who seem most likely to be struggling to maintain their status in the top tier.
Premier League Winner Market
Manchester City – 5/6 with Spreadex
Following that remarkable treble-winning campaign, Pep Guardiola’s men are the hot favourites to lift the trophy for a fourth time in a row, and they will most likely take some stopping. The summer transfer window has been very quiet by their standards, but then again, it isn't easy to pinpoint many areas in need of improvement. That said, the replacement of Ilkay Gundogan with Mateo Kovacic feels like a downgrade, and they were made to work pretty hard for the title last season.
Arsenal – 5/1 with 10Bet
Mikel Arteta’s men made giant strides last season to finish five points adrift of Manchester City but fully nine clear of Manchester United in third. Following an excellent summer, they look set for a similarly productive time of things this time around. The loss of Granit Xhaka did leave a whole in midfield, but in Declan Rice, they have just the man to fill it; Kai Havertz adds significant variety to the attack, and Jurrien Timber brings both attacking threat and solidity to the right-back position – which was possibly the sides area of weakness last term.
Liverpool – 8/1 with William Hill
It took Jurgen Klopp’s men a long time to get rolling last season, but Liverpool finished well, to only narrowly miss out on the top four, and will be looking to carry that momentum into the new campaign. If they are to regain their seat at the top table, the Reds must do so with a new-look midfield. The high-class Premier League-ready Alexis Mac Allister looks like an excellent piece of business, whilst the much-coveted Dominik Szoboszlai is riskier but brings plenty of potential upside. Expect a better season from the Reds, but whether that will be enough to close the gap to City and Arsenal remains to be seen.
Manchester United – 12/1 with Betway
There is still over a month left to run in the summer transfer window, but on the business completed so far, it is hard to see Manchester United improving much on last season's third-placed finish. Andre Onana does appear to represent an upgrade on David de Gea, particularly with the ball on the ground, but Mason Mount looks like a gamble following a disappointing season with Chelsea. More significantly, United still have a number of glaring holes in the side – most notably the absence of a prolific centre forward and problems in defence.
- Premier League Winner Best Bet - Arsenal at 5/1 with 10Bet
Top 4 Contenders
If the betting market is to be believed, the four sides outlined above are the most likely to fill the top four positions this season. However, the top 7 or 8 in the league has never looked so competitive, and the following sides all have realistic hopes of being in the mix.
Chelsea – 13/8 with BetVictor
Having thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the past two transfer windows, Chelsea must rank as one of the biggest disappointments of last season, having somehow managed to finish down in 12th position. Mauricio Pochettino is the man tasked with moulding this star-studded squad into a cohesive unit, and given his solid record with Spurs, the Stamford Bridge faithful will believe he can get the job done. No side has been busier so far this summer, with almost an entire squad worth of players either sold or loaned out, headlined by Kai Havertz, Mateo Kovacic, Mason Mount, Christian Pulisic, Cesar Azpilicueta, and N’Golo Kante, with the speedy Nicolas Jackson and dangerous Christopher Nkunku being the key incomings. Despite all that, the Blues aren't obviously stronger than last season on paper, and much will depend upon how quickly Pochettino can work his magic - if at all.
Newcastle United – 7/4 with Betway
Having shocked so many last season, can Newcastle United do it again? In the Magpie's favour is the fact that they are already a finely tuned unit, whereas Spurs, Chelsea, and Liverpool may face a period of adjustment. Sandro Tonali is the marquee signing to date, with Harvey Barnes expected to replace Allan Saint-Maximin, who is reportedly departing for the riches of Saudi Arabia. Eddie Howe’s men still look a little short at left-back, but if able to bring someone in before the window shuts, they seem likely to be in and around the top four once more.
Tottenham Hotspur – 4/1 with Spreadex
Whilst not quite at the levels of Chelsea’s disastrous campaign, Spurs will have been disappointed to finish down in eighth. However, the lower number of fixtures, thanks to that lack of European football, may well turn into an advantage in the race for the top four. Ange Postecoglou impressed many with the style of play implemented during his time at Celtic and, whilst this represents a step up in class, his appointment at least provides optimism heading into the season - as does the recent signing of James Maddison. Of course, how well Spurs perform largely depends on whether or not Harry Kane sticks around.
Aston Villa – 10/1 with Betfred
Following the appointment of Unai Emery, Aston Villa transformed from relegation contenders into the fifth-best side in the league over the final 25 matches. Clearly headed in the right direction, they may not need to find much improvement to force themselves into the top four picture. The club have also recruited particularly well over the summer. Pau Torres represents an immediate upgrade at centre-back, Youri Tielemans arrives on a free from Leicester, and Moussa Diaby brings goals and creativity from wide areas. They may be a touch underestimated in what looks set to be a tight race.
- Top 4 Finish Best Bet - Aston Villa at 10/1 with Betfred
Odds to go down
- Luton Town - 1/3 with Coral
- Sheffield United - 8/11 with BetVictor
- Bournemouth - 5/2 with Betway
- Nottingham Forest - 11/4 with BetVictor
- Burnley - 11/4 with Coral
- Everton - 7/2 with Midnite
No surprise to see that two of the newly promoted sides, Luton Town and Sheffield United, are odds-on favourites to make an immediate return to the Championship. It’s hard to argue with that assessment, particularly in the case of Luton, who would appear to be badly out of their depth. However, all three promoted sides managed to survive last season, and from a betting perspective, the value may lie elsewhere.
Everton’s lack of recruitment so far is concerning, with only the veteran Ashley Young coming in during the early stages of the window. However, the Toffee’s do have the Sean Dyche factor in their favour, and the suspicion is that he of the gravelly voice, will, at the very least, make Everton tough to beat this term.
At the prices, the best bets look to be Nottingham Forest, whose whirlwind approach to the transfer market seems to be yielding more misses than hits, and Bournemouth, who appear to have taken a major gamble in replacing Gary O’Neill - who led the Cherries to a 15th-place finish - with Andoni Iraola, who will need to adjust quickly to the Premier League.
- Relegation Best Bet - Nottingham Forest at 11/4 with BetVictor
- Relegation Best Bet - Bournemouth at 5/2 with Betway
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