England vs Slovenia Betting Preview
Despite a pair of mildly and seriously underwhelming displays against Serbia and Denmark, England have successfully negotiated the first hurdle at Euro 2024 – qualifying for the Last 16 without kicking a ball thanks to the Sunday and Monday evening results. However, their exact finishing position in Group C – and Last 16 opponents – is still to be confirmed. A win against Slovenia guarantees top spot, whilst a draw will be good for at least second. Lose, and they will slip down to third if Denmark also beat Serbia.
Topping the section will see England face one of the best third-placed finishers from Groups D, E, or F. Slipping to second will see England face hosts Germany. Dropping to third will result in a clash with either Portugal or the winners of Group E.
From Slovenia’s perspective, a win guarantees qualification, whilst a draw would leave them with a chance of claiming one of the best third-place finishing spots. Overall, both sides have plenty of incentive to go for the win.
England vs Slovenia Head-to-Head
England dominates the head-to-head record with Slovenia, having won five of the six meetings between the sides to date – the sixth game finishing in a goalless draw in a World Cup qualifier back in 2016. Whilst usually having enough to see off Slovenia, England have won by more than one goal on only one occasion – a 3-1 success in a Euro Qualifier in 2014. The sides only meeting at the finals of a major competition came at the 2010 World Cup – England winning 1-0 thanks to a Jermaine Defoe strike.
Opening Game Performances
England’s two games to date have followed a depressingly similar pattern. Having taken the lead against both Serbia and Denmark, Southgate’s men found themselves on the back foot for much of the remainder of the games – getting away with it against Serbia but having to settle for a draw when second-best against the Danes.
Despite an enviable cast of attacking talent, England have averaged just 0.86xG for across those first two games, losing the total shot count in both encounters and managing only seven shots on target in 180 minutes of football. On a more positive note (hard to find following two insipid displays) England have been rock solid defensively, giving up an average of 0.58 xG against, and only conceding via that Moren Hjulmand strike from range.
Slovenia have performed marginally better than England in attack, with an average of 1.22 xG for. However, their defensive numbers of 1.62 xG against are significantly behind those of the Three Lions. Those numbers are a symptom of the difficulty they have had in maintaining possession – registering only 32.20% possession against Denmark and 39.30% against Serbia.
Best Bets
How to bet on England? Will we be in for another turgid display? Or will Southgate take the breaks off at least a little with qualification secured? We hope for that latter, but certainly wouldn't be surprised by the former, which makes things tricky. Nevertheless, a trio of options stand out from the crowd.
Against both Denmark and Serbia, Slovenia experienced most of their problems down their left-hand side. That could play into England’s hands, with Bukayo Saka just about England’s most dangerous attacking threat in their opening two games – electric in the first half against Serbia. With that in mind, our first selection in the game is on the Arsenal man to score of assist. If Southgate shuffles his pack, and Saka doesn’t start, the suggestion is to include whoever gets the nod on the England right.
- Recommended Bet - Bukayo Saka to score or assist @ Evs with bet365
Whilst solid at defending their area, England do allow the opposition the opportunity to take pot shots from range – conceding 11 shots from outside the area against Denmark. That is certainly preferable to giving up chances inside the area, but does expose a slight weakness in Jordan Pickford in our opinion. In Benjamin Sesko, Slovenia may have the player to make them pay. Adopting a shoot-on-site approach in their opening fixtures, the RB Leipzig man has been unlucky not to score – rattling the woodwork in both fixtures. At 16/1, Sesko looks solid value to hit the target from range.
- Recommended Bet - Benjamin Sesko to score from outside the box @ 16/1 with bet365
Finally, whilst England have struggled overall, they have at least shown good discipline – picking up only one booking in the tournament to date. Slovenia in contrast are averaging three cards per game. That stat, in combination with the fact that England really should dominate possession here, makes Slovenia to receive the most cards a solid proposition.
- Recommended Bet - Slovenia to receive the most cards @ 4/5 with bet365
For the adventurous punter, combining the above three selections in a Bet Builder pays out at 55/1 with bet365.
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