Champions League Final Betting Preview - PSG v Inter
At the end of a thrilling 2024/25 season, just one significant match remains on the European club scene, but it’s a big one. The biggest one of all, in fact, as PSG and Inter Milan head to the Allianz Arena in Munich for the 2025 Champions League Final.
For PSG, this represents the chance to claim the prize their Qatari owners and fans covet above all others. Surprisingly, given their longstanding profile on the international stage, PSG are yet to be crowned kings of Europe. The competition hasn’t been particularly kind to French clubs overall, with 1993 champs Marseille the only Gallic outfit to claim the ultimate European prize. Coming closest when losing 1-0 to Bayern Munich in the 2019/20 final, could this be the year PSG get over the line?
With 12 wins, Italian clubs boast a richer Champions League heritage than their French counterparts. Seven-time winners AC Milan lead the way, but Inter have contributed, with wins in 1964, 1965, and most recently when mastering Bayern Munich in 2009/10. Will history count for anything when the whistle blows at 8 pm on Saturday?
What Do the Numbers Say
Comparing sides from different leagues is never a straightforward task. However, a look at the Serie A and Ligue 1 stats may provide a decent guide to the type of teams we are dealing with.
Both sides arrive in excellent form, with the only recent blip on PSG’s record being a 2-1 loss at Strasbourg. However, with the Ligue 1 title having been sewn up for some time, we possibly shouldn’t read too much into that.
Narrow defeats to Bologna and Roma ultimately cost Inter the Serie A title, with Simone Inzaghi’s men losing out by just a point to Napoli in the final reckoning. I Nerazzurri are unbeaten in six since that loss to Roma.
Moving down the list of stats, the BTTS and Over 2.5 goals figures differ markedly. Averaging 2.3 xG per game and 2.7 actual goals, PSG have overwhelmed their French opposition with their attacking might. Inter have achieved success by more pragmatic means – 14 of their 24 Serie A outings were to nil.
PSG boast a significantly better xG difference, but that may be partly attributable to the relative weakness of Ligue 1. The French top flight sits fifth in the UEFA Coefficient rankings, whilst Serie lies behind only the Premier League.
Route to the Final
Inter fared best in the League phase of the competition, with a fourth place granting immediate progress to the last 16. Mastering Feyenoord home and away, they then edged past Bayern 4-3 on aggregate before coming out on top in a crazy encounter with Barcelona – Davide Frattesi netting an extra-time winner following two 3-3 draws.
In contrast to their solid Serie A defensive record and generally tight games, five of Inter's six knockout matches featured over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring.
Winning only four of their eight League stage fixtures, PSG finished down in 15th, requiring an additional knockout game. Having swatted Brest aside 10-0 on aggregate, they then set about single-handedly ending the hopes of the English clubs. Dumping Liverpool out on penalties, they then clung on against Villa before beating Arsenal home and away.
With Inter mastering the Spanish and German champions on their way to the final and PSG seeing off the Premier League winners and runners-up, both outfits have impressed equally en route to Munich.
Head-to-Head Record
PSG hold the advantage in the more recent head-to-head clashes between the clubs, with three wins in the last five encounters. However, with four of those games being pre-season friendlies, the results should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Expected Lineups
Ousmane Dembélé has been the star performer for PSG in the Champions League with an excellent eight goals and four assists across 12 games. Elsewhere, the Parisiens present a potent threat on both flanks, with wing-backs Nuno Mendes and Achraf Hakimi combining for seven goals and six assists.
Argentinian hitman Lautaro Martinez remains the focal point for the Inter attack, with his intelligent running and reliable finishing leading to nine goals in as many Champion’s League appearances. Much of Inter's danger comes down the right side, with the impressive Denzel Dumfries chipping in with two goals and three assists.
The Bets
Inter’s recent results and PSG’s outstanding attacking numbers overall point to an entertaining encounter. However, recent evidence suggests that tension often sets in when the sides take to the field in this game, with the past six Champions League finals all featuring under 2.5 goals.
In all honesty, the more we look at this game, the more it appears to be a coin toss. It is hard not to have been impressed with the attacking creativity of PSG but Inter boasts the edge in experience. Unable to split the sides, the value call is to side with the bigger-priced outfit, making Inter our win selection.
If Inter are to win the game, we suspect they will need to score first – chasing the game against a side so potent on the break can only spell disaster. And if Inter are to grab the first goal, Lautaro Martinez and his impressive goals-per-game ratio is by far the most likely to do it.
Finally, Nuno Mendes tops the PSG booking table in the Champions League and could be in for another here. In direct opposition with the rampaging Denzel Dumfries and with the physical Marcus Thuram also on his side of the pitch, the inexperienced fullback will do well to escape the wrath of the referee.
- Recommended Bet - Inter to win in 90 minutes @ 12/5 with Betfred
- Recommended Bet - Lautaro Martinez to score first @ 6/1 with Betfred
- Recommended Bet - Nuno Mendes to receive a card @ 12/5 with Betfred
- Recommended Bet - Bet Builder on the above three selections @ 28/1 with Betfred
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