Derby Preview and Best Bets
All eyes on Epsom this coming Saturday, as the Surrey track plays host to the most famous flat race of the British season. Once again attracting the very best runners from both sides of the Irish Sea, the battle for the £1.6million in total prize money and Classic prestige looks set to be as hot as ever. And as always, the question on everyone’s lips in the lead up to the race is, “Who’s going to win?”….
The Favourites
Last successful with Workforce back in 2010, five-time Derby winning trainer Sire Michael Stoute is being made to wait for win number six. However, that wait may be about to end in 2022, as it is the Stoute trained, Desert Crown (7/4 with Betfred) who is out on his own at the head of the betting.
A perfect two from two in his career to date, he arrives on the back of an excellent win in the Dante Stakes, when impressing both visually and with the time on the clock. Should he handle both the unique undulations of Epsom, and this step up to 1m4f, he may well prove the class act in the field.
It wouldn’t be a Derby without a fancied runner from the Irish operation of Aidan O’Brien, and the Ballydoyle maestro sends three into battle this time around, in the shape of Changingoftheguard, Star Of India and Stone Age.
The choice of Ryan Moore, it is Stone Age who has emerged as the stable number one, shortening into 4/1 with William Hill following an authoritative success in a trial for this race at Leopardstown. Being by the sadly departed super sire Galileo, he shouldn’t be found wanting in the stamina department and seems likely to be involved.
Lively Outsiders
This hasn’t been a particularly happy hunting ground for favourite backers in recent years, with four of the past five winners being priced at 16/1 or bigger. It therefore may make sense to look a little further down the betting list.
Piz Badile (10/1 with Betfred) will likely prove popular on the back of a win in the Ballysax Stakes and with the evergreen Frankie Dettori in the saddle, whilst Aidan O’Brien’s apparent second string Changingoftheguard (8/1) could prove dangerous - particularly should the rain arrive.
Star Of India (16/1 Betfred) meanwhile went into many notebooks when scoring stylishly on debut at Leopardstown back in October. Disappointing when tapped for toe on his seasonal return in the 1m Craven Stakes, he then bounced right back to form when landing the 1m2½f Dee Stakes at Chester in his prep run for this. Hitting the line strongly that day, this further step up in trip may bring out more, and this Galileo colt can go well.
West Wind Blows (33/1 William Hill) has a lot more to prove than Star Of India, but we like what we have seen from the mount of Jack Mitchell. Landing his maiden at the first time of asking last season, he looked to have trained on nicely when pulverising his rivals from the front at Nottingham - giving a decent field 7lbs and a five-length beating. An out and out galloper, he takes a big step up in class here, but may be tough to keep out of the places if getting into a rhythm on the front end.
Best Bets
If there is a superstar in this year’s line-up, it does seem most likely to be Desert Crown. However, with slight questions to answer regarding the track and trip, he’s not for us at what is a pretty skinny price.
With a number of firms offering additional places, this seems a good race for a couple of each way punts against the market leaders, with both Star Of India and West Wind Blows looking good value to hit the frame.
- Each Way Tip - Star Of India @16/1 with Betfred
- Each Way Tip - West Wind Blows @ 33/1 with William Hill
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